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Liz Loza, ESPN
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions, even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
“Bless this mess.”
Once upon a time it was a cheeky mantra. These days, however, it’s become a phrase I grumble in quiet exasperation, gently pleading with unseen divinity to swoop in and tidy the clutter of my existence. From the Goldfish crumbs that have become inextricably woven into the literal fabric of my once beige (and now gray) sofa to the 23 unread texts that blink back at me with judgment each time I open my phone, this hamster wheel can get grubby.
Those instances, of course, are nothing next to the real dirt that folks sift through. Spilled spaghetti sauce and dead car batteries are blips compared to bent limbs and broken hearts. Still, we’re encouraged to get out there and roll around in the metaphoric mud. It’s good to make mistakes … as long as you learn from them, right? It’s a purposeful axiom! After all, you can’t know clean until you’ve met sloppy. Or something like that.
Is there an emoji for, “I saw your text but didn’t know how to perfectly respond to it so I waited until I knew exactly what to say but it’s been three weeks so now I just feel microbursts of shame every time I see your name in the elephant graveyard of messages on my phone?”
— Jon Acuff (@JonAcuff) April 22, 2020
What lies under the emphatic encouragement and between all those exclamation points is the part that people forget, though. That giant fun-as-heck-to-make mess? Well, someone has to smooth that over. And that is truly where the lesson is learned. There is no magical Swiffer descending from the heavens to dust off the dust-up. Fairy godmothers can exist, but even the potency of their potions wears off and dries out. Eventually, the closet needs to be purged and the toxic ties cut.
It’s a ceaseless pattern. Anyone with exposure to pets or children can relate. Scooping kitty litter is gross. Stepping on a rogue Lego is excruciating. But it is in those moments of ick that we unlock another level of capability. Admittedly, patching together and scrubbing down is not pleasurable. But it does build a skill. The hope is that we become proficient enough at the tough stuff so we can better enjoy the good parts. Even if that means discovering that everyone else’s “good part” is not the same as yours.
I, personally, like things in their proper place(s) … but the older I get the more appreciation I have for mishmash. It’s a reminder that completion is a construct. That we’re never really done. (Until we are… and then, whew.) And while it’s a lie to say that toil is proportional to joy, there is catharsis in scouring something until it appears brand-new(ish) again. I’m getting better at that, which has made the recent ant infestation on my kitchen counter and the collapse of my Isiah Pacheco shares more tolerable.
The injury bug hit hard in Week 2, prompting throngs of fantasy enthusiasts to rummage waiver wires web-wide. Whether it was awakening fantasy zombie Kareem Hunt or speculatively stashing Colby Parkinson, the virtual game feels filthy heading into Week 3. But that’s just the fact of rounding into form. So, let’s roll up our sleeves, remember that elbow grease is the best polish, and confidently wade into the chaos.
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Talk about growing pains! Richardson (and his fantasy managers) went through them last Sunday. The second-year pro struggled to connect with his No. 1 WR, limiting Michael Pittman Jr. to three catches at Lambeau. This lack of rapport zapped the offense of tempo and verve. And, yet, the warning signs were on display in Week 1. Richardson showed us his big arm, elite rushing traits and those accuracy issues versus Houston. However, most of us (including myself) zeroed in on his big-play ability, forgiving the lack of precise passing, and remained grateful that he stayed healthy. And while that might have been obtuse, it wasn’t wrong.
Richardson’s 49% completion rate was the lowest in the NFL last week. To add insult to injury, his completion percentage over expectation was a sobering -13% (which means an average QB should be expected to complete 62 percent of his passes based on the throws he’s making and the separation of his receivers). That’s bad. However, the 22-year-old’s aDOT (13.3) is by far the highest in the league. His 93 rushing yards also ranks fifth among QBs. Like it or not, deep passing and rushing are what drive fantasy points.
Rostering Richardson is not for the faint of heart. He will have duds like he did in Week 2. And his matchup versus Chicago isn’t exactly giving “gimme” vibes, either. But on those occasions in which he sweeps the basement there’s also opportunity for an overall up-leveling. You didn’t roster Richardson for his floor, you were investing in his ceiling. Stay the course.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Jones was a surprise hero in Week 1, registering more than 100 scrimmage yards and almost 19 fantasy points. His performance was near vintage. Unfortunately for managers, the best way to keep him classic is to ensure his legs stay fresh. Enter Ty Chandler.
The 26-year-old recorded the same number of snaps but saw his rushing attempts increase in Week 2. While the boost was slight, Chandler’s output was dramatic, as he managed 8.2 yards per carry on 10 totes, out-producing his new backfield mate by 50 rushing yards. Jones’ activity in the passing game (5-36-0) kept his fantasy stock afloat, but Chandler’s commanding performance suggests a continued presence.
The divide between these two backs favors Jones by a meager margin. Still, the fact they’re splitting duties at nearly every phase is equal parts unique and telling.
Jones obviously remains the favorite to lead the committee. He could have success — particularly via the air — against a Bears defense that’s probably still trying to catch its collective breath (and one that gave up six grabs to Houston’s running backs on Sunday night). Chandler’s contributions aren’t likely to create much of a stand-alone impact, but their ripple will be felt by Jones investors. Consider the former Packer a low-end RB2 and the third-year Viking just out of RB3 range.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears: Swift has been anything but since arriving in the Windy City, averaging 6.6 fantasy points per outing and ranking 39th at the position. Chicago’s offense is sputtering, but Swift has an opportunity to find his footing in Week 3.
He is, after all, the Bears’ uncontested lead back, managing a hearty 67% snap share (compared to Travis Homer‘s 24% and Khalil Herbert‘s 10%). Interestingly, Homer has emerged as the favorite on third downs, recording 17 snaps to Swift’s 11 in similar situations. Yet, Swift remains active for 80% of the offensive snaps on first and second downs, providing him with a vast base from which to produce. Additionally, Swift is facing a light front on 60% of his carries, improving his chances of (finally) finding a lane and breaking loose.
The matchup also bodes well for the former division foe. Opposing run games have rocked the Colts in back-to-back outings. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs both hung more than 150 rushing yards on Indy, as the team’s defense has allowed more than 5 yards per carry so far this season. Swift won’t notch 30 totes like Jacobs did, but he should post at least 15 touches and top-20 RB numbers in a get-right spot on Sunday.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: There exist a number of qualities that make Andy Reid a revered football mind. His ability to anticipate and build toward the future is not discussed enough. Travis Kelce may have been the TE2 in fantasy points per game last season, but his overall numbers sagged significantly, as he posted his lowest receiving total since 2015. Yet, the Chiefs continued to thrive, in large part due to the explosiveness of Rice. That trend appears to have extended into 2024.
Incredibly, the SMU product has recorded just 11 fewer snaps and run just three fewer routes than Kelce (and three of those Kelce snaps were attributed to pass blocking). Conversely, Rice has accrued 10 more targets and posted 139 more receiving yards than the man previously believed to be Patrick Mahomes‘ “favorite target.” With a 2-0 record for KC and an average of more than 18 fantasy points for Rice, it’s a recipe worth remembering.
Rice’s versatility opens up the offense. In successfully traversing all levels of the field, Mahomes appears to trust Rice with alpha duties, as evidenced by the gorgeous 44-yard touchdown that the 24-year-old scored on a go route. He’s graduated past slant stunts. In fact, Rice is now one of five players with at least 75 receiving yards in both games this season. As a result, he’s shot up rankings and is currently listed as ESPN’s consensus WR5 for Week 3 at Atlanta.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Isaiah Likely brought the tilt and, as a result, drew our focus in Week 1. Meanwhile, Flowers quietly drew 10 targets and posted double-digit fantasy points. The second-year pro then followed up that performance with another 11 looks in Week 2, doubling this fantasy output for an impressive 22 PPR points. He is the only player in the NFL to log at least 10 targets in both games this season. The 24-year-old also leads all Ravens pass-catchers in routes run (73), targets (21), catches (13), and receiving yards (128).
As Lamar Jackson‘s new go-to, Flowers should stay busy at Dallas in Week 3. The point spread is close (1.5) and the game figures to be high-scoring (48.5), bettering the chances of a third straight double-digit target outing for the Boston College product. The Cowboys’ pass defense is vaunted, but the squad allowed both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to clear 80 receiving yards on four catches apiece. As such, Flowers projects to deliver top-20 positional numbers for fantasy purposes.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks: There appears to be a (much-anticipated) breakout loading. Smith-Njigba managed a career effort, converting 12 of (a team-high) 16 looks for 117 receiving yards last Sunday. DK Metcalf stunned with a 56-yard score and numerous chunk gains, but JSN shined as much more than a second fiddle.
The 22-year-old thrived inside, posting nearly 22 fantasy points when working the slot (70% snap rate). Second among pass-catchers in terms of offensive snaps and routes run, Smith-Njigba seems to have bumped Tyler Lockett as the team’s No. 2 WR, working as a smooth and sure-handed complement to Metcalf.
He’ll effort to keep the momentum churning versus Miami on Sunday. The Dolphins have struggled to contain opposing slot receivers, as evidenced by Khalil Shakir‘s commanding performance last Thursday night. Interestingly, Miami’s defense ranks inside the bottom 10 in terms of yards per reception as well as catch rate to the slot. That bodes well for JSN’s continued ascent. He’s probably a safer flex play, but could flirt with low-end WR2 fantasy numbers.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders: On the topic of breakouts, Bowers’ feels ahead of schedule. Still, the facts state he’s one of only three tight ends in league history to log 50-plus receiving yards in each of his first two outings. Not to bring the womp-womp, but no player has kept that streak alive for three consecutive games. Bowers, however, was touted throughout the draft process as being a generational talent, so there’s legitimate enthusiasm that he makes history.
The former Georgia standout has maintained a slight edge over fellow tight end Michael Mayer in terms of snap rate, staying on the field for 68% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps (as opposed to Mayer’s 61%). Despite being a rookie, he additionally appears to be the preferred pass-catching option. Bowers has not only run 17 more routes than Mayer, but he’s also drawn a look on 32% of those routes. Mayer, on the other hand, has managed a targets-per-route-run rate of just 12%.
Bowers will look to dominate a beatable Panthers defense on Sunday. Carolina has, thus far, allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. It’s worth noting the line moved from 7 to 5.5 points after Andy Dalton was installed as Carolina’s starter. That indicates a belief that this game could be more competitive, which should gift Bowers with a boost in opportunities. He’s a top-five fantasy TE heading into Week 3.
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