-
David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
We head into the final weekend of the 2024 MLB regular season — which might actually leak into Monday now — with playoff spots to be decided and seedings to be determined. There are statistical races up for grabs, historic numbers to reach and the Chicago White Sox improbably trying not to lose more games than the 1962 Mets.
The National League wild-card race has the most intrigue, with three teams fighting for two spots — the Arizona Diamondbacks at 88-71, the New York Mets at 87-70 and the Atlanta Braves a game back at 86-71. This race, of course, was thrown into even more turmoil when the final two games of the Mets-Braves series on Wednesday and Thursday were rained out due to heavy rains from Hurricane Helene in Atlanta, creating a rescheduled doubleheader for Monday. One reason MLB eliminated tiebreaker games a couple of years ago was so there would be no games on Monday before the postseason starts … yet, here we are.
Starting with the series involving those teams , let’s dig into what to watch this weekend.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The good news for the Mets is they control their own destiny: Win and they’re in. Of course, Mets fans can remember two years ago when they had a one-game lead over the Braves with six to play and promptly got swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The teams ended up tied for the NL East title, but the Braves won it on the tiebreaker, and the Mets were relegated to a wild-card series (which they lost).
The Monday doubleheader also creates the possibility of a travel nightmare for the Mets: They play the Brewers this weekend, head to Atlanta for the doubleheader on Monday, and then could go back to Milwaukee for the start of the wild-card series on Tuesday. Meanwhile, they’ve likely taxed their bullpen just to get into the playoffs and Sean Manaea, the Mets’ top starter of late (they’ve won his past eight starts and 15 of his past 17), pitches Friday, which means he wouldn’t be ready to go until Game 2 of the wild-card series.
It does at least look like Francisco Lindor will be back in the lineup. He has just one at-bat since Sept. 13 but was penciled in to hit leadoff before Wednesday’s game was washed out. Rookie Luisangel Acuna has hit well in making his MLB debut in Lindor’s absence, but the Mets will be happy to have their best player back in the fold.
In one sense, though, the Mets caught a break with the rainouts: They would have faced Chris Sale and Max Fried; now they won’t have to. The Brewers are also locked into the 3-seed, so there isn’t any incentive for them to go all out and burn through their best relievers against the Mets over the weekend.
Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves
It’s possible the Braves could be eliminated by Monday — for example, if the Royals sweep the Braves while the Mets and Diamondbacks win out. All that unfolding is unlikely, however, and the doubleheader might be played even if it’s just for seeding purposes for the fifth and sixth wild cards.
The rainouts certainly disrupted Atlanta’s pitching rotation. Sale was supposed to start on Wednesday and Fried on Thursday, which would have lined them up for the first two games of the wild-card series. For now, the Braves have announced only that Fried is scheduled to start Friday, with pitchers for Saturday and Sunday still TBA. It seems they’re holding Sale until they absolutely have to use him — preferably in the doubleheader against the Mets, even if that means he won’t be available for the wild-card series. That’s not necessarily a worst-case scenario. Using Sale against the Mets obviously improves the Braves’ chances of getting into the postseason, especially since they have won the past eight games Sale has started. And while they’d have to win the wild-card series without him, that would line him up to start Game 1 of the division series — and make two starts in that best-of-five series.
Michael Harris II has been hot for the Braves recently with an eight-game hitting streak and five straight multihit games in which he has gone 14-for-24 (.583) with three home runs. Ozzie Albies has gone 3-for-19 in his four games back since missing two months with a fractured wrist. However, the switch-hitter is limited to batting from just the right side, although that has been his stronger side throughout his career.
The Braves currently lead the Mets 6-5 in the season series, so that tiebreaker remains up for grabs. There’s certainly a scenario in which the Diamondbacks clinch the fifth seed and the Mets win the first game of the doubleheader, setting up Game 162 between the Mets and Braves to see who gets in — and who goes home.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
The important thing to know here is that the Diamondbacks lost the season series to both the Mets and Braves, so they lose out on both a head-to-head tiebreaker and a three-team tiebreaker. Arizona rolls out Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez for the final series of the season, as it has Zac Gallen lined up to start the first game of the playoffs.
Montgomery had been relegated to the bullpen for a spell but has made two starts since returning to the rotation — allowing three runs in each game in short outings of 4⅔ and 4⅓ innings, respectively — so that feels like a quick-hook game and a lot of bullpen work. Rodriguez has a 5.56 ERA in nine starts after missing the first four months. The Diamondbacks didn’t get much this season from their big investments in Montgomery and Rodriguez as free agents, but that can be forgotten if both come up big here.
Arizona’s offense has been on fire in the second half, but the hottest hitter in September has been Eugenio Suarez, who is hitting .341 with eight home runs this month. Ketel Marte missed some time with a sprained ankle, but since coming off the injured list, he has hit .263/.391/.579 in 17 games.
American League wild card
The AL wild-card race has a little more clarity than the NL one, with the Royals and Detroit Tigers both sweeping their midweek series to remain tied for the final two spots and the Twins now three games behind. The Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers, so they get the fifth seed if the two teams end up tied. The Twins do hold the tiebreaker over both the Royals and Tigers, but they’ll need some help to get there. Each team’s season-ending series:
-
Royals at Braves
-
White Sox at Tigers
-
Orioles at Twins
The key for both the Royals and Tigers is wrapping up that playoff spot before Sunday. The Royals have Cole Ragans scheduled to start the final game, and the Tigers would have Tarik Skubal in line, but both teams obviously are hoping they don’t have to use them and can instead have those pitchers ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.
Battles for the best record and top seed
-
In the NL: The Los Angeles Dodgers have 95 wins, one more than the Philadelphia Phillies, with the Phillies holding the tiebreaker. The Dodgers finish at Colorado while the Phillies play the Nationals.
-
In the AL: The New York Yankees have a one game lead over the Cleveland Guardians and hold the tiebreaker. The Yankees host the Pirates (and will face Paul Skenes on Saturday) while the Guardians host the Astros.
The Shohei Ohtani watch … continues
Did you think we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. Ohtani keeps on doing impossible things and is up to 53 home runs and 56 stolen bases. On Thursday night, he also reached 400 total bases. Next up: Maybe he can get to 100 extra base hits, he’s currently at 97. The last time somebody got there was 2001, back when the hitting environment was a little more conducive to big offensive numbers. Indeed, only three players had reached 400 total bases in seasons outside of the 1920/30s and late 1990s/early 2000s: Stan Musial in 1948, Henry Aaron in 1959 and Jim Rice in 1978.
Other statistical races at play
-
Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? His streak of five straight games with a home run this week suddenly puts 60 back in play after he had that 16-game homerless streak earlier in the month. He’s sitting on 58 home runs while also slugging .708. The last player to slug .700 was Barry Bonds in 2004, and the last AL player to get there was Mark McGwire in 1996. The last player to do so outside of that 1994-2004 window when offense exploded was Ted Williams in 1957.
-
Oh, and Judge also has a chance at 400 total bases too. He’s sitting on 392.
-
Sale and Skubal are looking to lock up the pitching Triple Crown in their respective leagues — leading in wins, ERA and strikeouts (the last pitcher to do it was Shane Bieber in 2020 and the last to do it in a full season were Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw in 2011). Skubal has a five-strikeout lead over Ragans, so that will come into play only if Ragans has to start on Sunday and Skubal doesn’t. Sale has a one-strikeout lead over Dylan Cease, but Cease isn’t scheduled to pitch.
-
Will Bobby Witt Jr. hold on to the AL batting title? He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After going 1-for-4 on Thursday, Witt is down to .332, with Guerrero and Judge at .325, close enough that any of the three could win. If Judge pulls it out — admittedly, not too likely — then he also wins the Triple Crown.
-
Will Luis Arraez capture a third straight batting title? Arraez led the AL with a .316 average in 2022 and the NL at .354 last season. He has a two-point advantage over Marcell Ozuna at .312 to .310, so it’s definitely up for grabs — and won’t be settled until Ozuna’s Braves play that doubleheader on Monday. The last player to win three consecutive batting titles: Miguel Cabrera, who did it from 2011 to 2013, part of a run in which he won four in five years.
-
Jose Ramirez needs two home runs to join the 40/40 club. Sure, this milestone has lost a little luster after Ohtani created the 50/50 club, but it is still an impressive feat in its own right — especially for a player listed at 5-foot-9, 195 pounds.
Saying goodbye
Joey Votto, who didn’t play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:
-
Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It’s not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier’s defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.
-
Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues — his first full season didn’t come until he was 27 years old — but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016-2019 peak, but he’s one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.
There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven’t yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency and his start on Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don’t return — thanks for the memorable careers.
Finally … will the White Sox ever lose again?
The White Sox tied the ’62 Mets on Sunday with their 120th loss, the modern major league record. History appeared inevitable. Then, against all odds, they swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game series, including a three-run rally in the eighth inning on Tuesday to win 3-2 and a huge seven-run rally in the fifth inning on Thursday. Keep in mind, the Mets played only 160 games, so they finished 40-120. If the White Sox were to sweep the Tigers, Chicago would finish 42-120 … which, it seems, would mean the Mets retain their title.
This post was originally published on this site