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Nick Wagoner, ESPN Staff Writer
MINNEAPOLIS — Whether it’s by watching game tape or combing through statistics, Christian McCaffrey‘s value to the San Francisco 49ers is nothing if not obvious.
McCaffrey is widely regarded as the league’s best running back, in large part because he’s not limited by the constraints of that job title.
Need a tough run between the tackles? McCaffrey can handle it. A quick route for a catch and a first down? Few do it better. A blitz pickup to buy an extra second of time for a big play? He delivers more often than not.
Which is why, despite the outstanding work from backup Jordan Mason in the first two weeks, there’s one undeniable truth: there simply is no replacing McCaffrey.
“He was the Offensive Player of the Year for a reason,” tight end George Kittle said. “He was in the MVP voting for a reason. He had 20-plus touchdowns for a reason. He does it all in the pass game, the run game, I mean it’s really fun. It just gives us another dimension.”
It’s a dimension that the 49ers were again without in Sunday’s disappointing 23-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and will be missing for at least three more games, perhaps longer, as McCaffrey recovers from the Achilles tendonitis that landed him on injured reserve on Saturday.
In many ways, McCaffrey’s absence hasn’t necessarily slowed San Francisco’s offense through the first two weeks. Most numbers show the 49ers as one of the best units in the league.
The 49ers are fifth in the NFL in yards per game (400), sixth in offensive efficiency (74.83) and ninth in offensive expected points added (6.3). But those numbers would be better if the Niners could be bolstered by faring better on third down. Logic dictates that improved third down performance would allow them to stay on the field and, presumably, finish more drives in the end zone.
Against the Vikings, San Francisco was a combined 3-of-13 on third and fourth down, including an incompletion on fourth-and-goal from Minnesota’s 2 that soon became a 97-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Sam Darnold to wideout Justin Jefferson. It’s no coincidence San Francisco managed to score just 17 points.
“I think we were two of nine on third down which usually doesn’t lead to touchdowns very much unless you’re doing it all on first and second (down),” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “One of three on fourth down doesn’t help. … It was a challenge today and we can do better.”,
It’s a small sample but, through two weeks, the 49ers rank 19th in third-down conversions (34.8%) and 18th in red zone touchdown percentage (44.4%). With McCaffrey in 2023, the 49ers were fourth (47.5%) and first (67.2%) in the league in those categories.
Ask teammates about McCaffrey and many will compare his “gravity” to that of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. The idea is that, like Curry, McCaffrey has the ability to draw multiple defenders any time he does anything, thus freeing up plenty of opportunities for others to make big plays.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy said he can see at least one way that defenses have altered how they approach San Francisco without McCaffrey.
“I think just being able to drop back in zone and not having to put two guys on a running back coming out of the back field like Christian,” Purdy said. “Brian Flores in his scheme and he did what he’s done on tape today and they’re just really, really good at it. And so, for me to sit here and say without Christian on the field they didn’t do this or that, it’s hard to tell.”
That example showed up in multiple ways on Sunday. Without McCaffrey, the running back duties fall to Mason, who has made two starts and rushed for 100-plus yards in both of them. Mason has proved more than capable of handling the lion’s share of the carries and there are some tantalizing possibilities for how he and McCaffrey could be used in tandem if and when McCaffrey is back.
Under normal circumstances, Purdy can drop back and, if nothing is open down the field, throw an easy check down to McCaffrey for a first down.
That didn’t happen against the Vikings as Purdy completed just one pass for 4 yards to a running back not named Kyle Juszczyk. Mason is still a work in progress as a pass-catching threat with two catches for 9 yards on the season. McCaffrey was third in receptions (67), second in receiving yards (564) and first in touchdown catches (seven) among all running backs last season.
That not only meant missed third-down conversions but also left Purdy searching for outlets that never came open. The result was a career-high six sacks and 13 pressures taken by Purdy in Minnesota.
Through two weeks, the 49ers are tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the highest rate of sacks allowed per drop back (11.7%) in the NFL despite those sacks coming in the second-slowest average time in the league (5.76 seconds).
In other words, Purdy has come under more pressure because he’s holding the ball too long since he doesn’t have the reliable McCaffrey, who led the NFL in first downs (114) and touchdowns (21) in 2023, to throw to when downfield coverage is good.
How much longer the 49ers will be without McCaffrey remains to be seen. His Achilles tendonitis has been a difficult injury to diagnose because of its unpredictability. Since he was placed on the IR, he will miss at least the next three games against the Rams, Patriots and Cardinals. Shanahan said after Sunday’s game that “nobody knows” how much longer he will be out.
For as long as he is, the 49ers’ offense will undoubtedly continue to move the ball. Whether they can consistently move it past first down markers and into end zones enough to stay among the NFC’s elite will depend on how well they adapt without their superstar running back.
“We’ve got the players, we’ve got the scheme, we got what it takes,” Purdy said. “It’s football man. Just because you got really good players and good scheme doesn’t mean the other team’s going to give it to you. You have to go out and earn it.”
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