While we cursed Dontayvion Wicks‘ hands and Roschon Johnson‘s productivity (2.5 YPC), the props still popped last week. Daniel Dopp and I delivered on four of our six wagers, including two QB picks that were listed at plus odds.
We’ll aim to stay equal parts consistent and bold in Week 6. With four teams on bye and injuries ravaging the running back position, there’s a good amount of uncertainty to exploit.
Let’s dig in! — Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
0:33
Will Jalen Hurts get going vs. the Browns?
Dan Orlovsky discusses why he is taking the Eagles over the Browns in Week 6.
Jalen Hurts OVER 224.5 passing yards (-130)
Loza: Hurts has cleared the above line in two of four games this season. One of those outings featured the talents of A.J. Brown, who is reportedly healthy and expected to start Sunday. DeVonta Smith will also be returning, providing the Philadelphia Eagles receiver corps with a much-needed boost.
As 9.5-point favorites versus a hapless Cleveland Browns squad, there’s a chance Hurts won’t need to pass all that much. Coming out of a bye and with the Eagles at 2-2, however, I can’t imagine Hurts won’t want to make a statement. This is a Super Bowl-contending squad currently ranked third in a surprisingly competitive NFC East. I expect Hurts to get back on track and put on a show at home.
Running back props
0:45
Why Field Yates says David Montgomery should be in all fantasy lineups
Field Yates explains why David Montgomery should be back in fantasy lineups with the Lions returning from a bye.
David Montgomery 10+ receiving yards (-110)
Dopp: Let’s start with the shortest odds of my three props. Montgomery isn’t known as the pass-catching back out of this Detroit Lions backfield — that title goes to the dynamic Jahmyr Gibbs — but it doesn’t mean Montgomery lacks nice passing-game chops.
Let’s start with the opposing team’s defense. The Dallas Cowboys‘ defensive line is banged up in a bad way. DeMarcus Lawrence is on IR and Micah Parsons, Eric Kendricks and Marshawn Kneeland have all been ruled out for Sunday. I’m expecting the Lions to lean on the run game, but with the books knowing the Cowboys’ injury woes, I don’t love where the rushing lines are as of this writing. I do, however, like Montgomery to have 10+ receiving yards, a line he has reached in three straight games (eight catches for 92 yards in that span).
Don’t let the fact that he’s primarily known as a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound running back dissuade you from his passing-game prowess. I’m expecting this offense to continue to find ways to get the ball into the hands of these two running backs, and that should include enough passing-game work to hit this modest line. Give me 10+ receiving yards for Montgomery, and while you’re at it, go watch this angry 40-yard reception he had against the Seahawks in Week 4 for a little extra motivation.
Wide receiver prop
0:40
CeeDee Lamb’s Week 6 fantasy outlook
Check out the stats behind CeeDee Lamb’s start to the season as he is set to face the Lions in Week 6.
CeeDee Lamb 100+ receiving yards (+140)
Dopp: We’re going bold here. Everyone knows the Lions can be taken advantage of through the air. We’ve seen it happen with Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf all reaching 100+ receiving yards against Detroit this season. That’s three wide receivers in four weeks, and I’m expecting that number to bump up to four WRs in five weeks for a couple of reasons.
First, Lamb has yet to have a boom game in 2024. His biggest receiving output was reaching 98 yards in Week 4 against the Giants, and he has been under 70 yards in three of his five games this season. That’s not the Lamb we’ve come to know in Dallas. We expect bigger games from the talented 25-year-old who topped 100 yards eight times last season, including in a Week 17 matchup against this Lions team that resulted in 17 targets for 13 receptions and 227 receiving yards. While I’m not expecting a 200-yard outing, I do expect to see something closer to that than the 60-yard games he has been putting up.
Second, the Cowboys are underdogs at home, which means we should see a lot of opportunities in the passing game. We know how good the Lions’ run defense has been recently, and I expect that trend to continue with the lack of rushing firepower in Dallas these days (no offense to Rico Dowdle). At 52.5, this game has the highest total on the board at ESPN BET. With the Lions favored to win by 3.5 points on the road, the Cowboys should have to lean on their air attack to move the ball down the field. And with no Brandin Cooks, this target tree has shrunk to Lamb, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. If that’s not a situation for Lamb to get some extra work, I don’t know what is.
Everything lines up for a shootout, and I’m following suit and taking Lamb cross the 100-yard barrier. Also, if you want to tack on an anytime TD just for kicks, that two-leg parlay would come in at +240, something that I’m absolutely doing as well.
Xavier Legette OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-105)
Loza: Surprisingly strong given his 4.39 speed, Legette brings a much-needed physicality to the Carolina Panthers receiving squad. He has been able to showcase his impressive skill set since Adam Thielen‘s early departure in Week 3. In fact, Legette worked in a full-time capacity in Week 4, recording a snap share of 90% and posting a 6-66-1 stat line against the Bengals.
He was, unfortunately, knocked out of last Sunday’s game because of a shoulder injury, but he logged a full week of practice heading into the weekend. Despite the missed time, Legette ranks second among Carolina’s pass catchers in targets (11) and receiving yards (74) over the past two outings. He figures to be heavily targeted as Andy Dalton chases points in a game against the Falcons (6-point favorites) that’s projected to be fairly high scoring (47.5).
With Diontae Johnson likely to draw primary coverage from A.J. Terrell, Legette should capitalize on his opportunities. I expect him to catch at least four balls for upward of 45 receiving yards.
0:30
Why Daniel Dopp likes Marvin Harrison Jr. to shine vs. Packers
Daniel Dopp breaks down why he sees Marvin Harrison Jr. being a quality fantasy option in Week 6.
Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 59.5 receiving yards (Even)
Dopp: Harrison has had a bit of a back-and-forth start to his rookie season. Some games he’s the clear alpha for Kyler Murray, showcasing the skills that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, and some games it seems as if Murray forgets he even exists as a primary passing-game option. I’m expecting the former in this Week 6 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, especially with Harrison coming off a dud performance (two catches, 36 yards) last week against the 49ers.
Harrison has hit this mark only twice out of his five games this season, but his 25% target share should keep him plenty involved against a Packers secondary that has allowed six different receivers to hit this mark. That’s not a typo. A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and DeAndre Hopkins are the household names to beat that mark, but Jordan Whittington and Jordan Addison also hit at least 70 yards, and Tutu Atwell and Alec Pierce both had over 55 yards. We’re talking about eight wide receivers who have hit or nearly hit this line against a what has been a soft Packers secondary.
Part of the problem for Green Bay has been the absence of Jaire Alexander, who was limited in all three practices this weeks and comes into this matchup with a questionable injury designation. This is one of those spots where I’m believing in the talent of Harrison to take advantage of the Packers for a big rebound game.
Tight end props
Zach Ertz OVER 29.5 receiving yards (Even)
Loza: Many of us fantasy heads predicted Ertz would have an early season resurgence and delay the Ben Sinnott arrival parade. As a tight end, Ertz had defied age (and gravity), logging the second-most routes run (115), targets drawn (24), receptions reeled in (17) and receiving yards recorded (160) among Washington’s pass catchers. Ertz additionally ranks a surprising second at the position in aDOT (8.2), having emerged as a reliable veteran for electric young QB Jayden Daniels.
The 33-year-old might not deliver the same YAC (or subsequent ceiling) he once did, but he is producing as a slot compliment to Terry McLaurin. He figures to be leaned upon early and often Sunday with the Commanders a 6.5-point underdog at Baltimore.
Coincidentally, the Ravens have given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends thus far in 2024. Ertz figures to cruise past 30 yards, in a game with the second-highest projected point total (51.5) among this week’s slate.
Follow Liz and Daniel on social media.
This post was originally published on this site