What’s on the line in Week 14? Well, it’s Rivalry Week and the final week of the regular season, so tensions are sure to be high with conference championships just right around the corner.
No. 3 Texas takes on No. 20 Texas A&M in a conference matchup that has quite a bit at stake. As the Longhorns look for a spot in the SEC title game, can they execute in the red zone at Kyle Field on Saturday?
The Big 12 enters the week with a four-way tie at the top of conference standings. Nine teams still have a chance at reaching the Big 12 title game — what are the scenarios for each?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 14 slate.
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Rivalry Week | Texas-Texas A&M | Big 12 updates
Quotes of the Week
Which rivalry matchup has biggest CFP implications?
Texas at Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Considering Texas A&M can play its way into the SEC title game with a win against Texas and would surely be eliminated from playoff consideration with a loss, it has got to be the Longhorns vs. Aggies. A&M can still earn the No. 2 seed. There isn’t another team playing in a rivalry game with such a broad range of possibilities. Then there’s the stakes for Texas.
It is two wins away from the No. 2 seed, but if it doesn’t reach the SEC title game, that would no longer be in play. Assuming Texas falls lower than No. 5 if it loses to A&M — which is a safe assumption — the Longhorns would be in line for a difficult first-round matchup. No matter how this game finishes, it will impact the playoff field. — Kyle Bonagura
Arizona State at Arizona (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The matchup between Arizona State and Arizona has CFP implications for only one team, but that does not make this game any less important. The Sun Devils have to win to put themselves in position to make the Big 12 championship game and move up the rankings to try to secure an automatic spot as a conference champion. As it stands right now, the race to the Big 12 title is muddy, with four teams 6-2 in league play headed into this weekend. No. 16 Arizona State (9-2) is the highest ranked among them, after reeling off six wins in its past six games.
The Sun Devils would be heavy favorites to win the majority of tiebreakers, if needed, to secure a spot in the conference championship game. But the only way to even be in that mix is to beat rival Arizona, which has won their past two meetings. Though the Wildcats (4-7) are out of bowl and playoff contention, there would be no greater win than spoiling their rival’s season to take home the Territorial Cup. — Andrea Adelson
South Carolina at Clemson (Saturday, noon on ESPN)
Surprisingly, it might be South Carolina visiting Clemson. The Gamecocks rose to No. 15 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings and might have the best chance among the SEC’s three-loss teams to make the field of 12. Unlike Ole Miss and Alabama, South Carolina doesn’t have a truly bad loss on its profile. The Gamecocks likely would have beaten LSU if starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers wasn’t injured in the first half (or, if a few calls had gone their way). They have won five straight since a 2-point road loss to Alabama, and recorded definitive wins against No. 20 Texas A&M (home), Vanderbilt (road) and Oklahoma (road), and a narrow home win against No. 21 Missouri.
A road win against another CFP ranked opponent could be enough to get South Carolina in ahead of two teams it lost to (Ole Miss, Alabama). Clemson, meanwhile, will have its eyes on the Miami–Syracuse game, as a Hurricanes loss would put the Tigers in the ACC title game against SMU, with a CFP berth on the line. — Adam Rittenberg
What does each team need to do to win?
Texas: The Longhorns have won 10 consecutive true road games under Steve Sarkisian, the longest active streak in the FBS. But the environment inside Kyle Field on Saturday night will be unlike anything these Texas players have ever experienced. Quinn Ewers and his squad must find a way to play calm and in control if they’re going to get the job done in College Station.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne‘s effectiveness on downfield shots certainly stood out during the Aggies’ 43-41 loss last week. Thorne threw for 301 yards on the night but got 230 of them on six completions. Sarkisian won’t hesitate to go after Texas A&M’s cornerbacks with his playcalling, but his QB needs to be on point with his deep passing. Ewers is 9-of-31 (29%) on throws of 20 or more air yards this season, according to TruMedia, and his 271 passing yards on those throws ranks 121st in the FBS.
One challenge that Sarkisian’s Texas offenses have run into at times in big games: red zone execution. Over the past two seasons, the Longhorns have scored touchdowns on 53% of their red zone opportunities against ranked opponents. This is one of those weeks when settling for too many field goal tries could end up proving costly. — Max Olson
Texas A&M: Follow the Georgia game plan, which is easier said than done if you aren’t Georgia. But to Max’s point, if the Aggies can rediscover their pass rush and pressure Ewers, particularly if they can force Texas to try to beat them throwing the ball, they’ll have opportunities. Against Georgia, Texas was pressured on 39% of dropbacks, and Ewers was 5-of-13 for 46 yards on those plays. On the day, he completed just 44.4% of his throws 5 or more yards downfield.
Last week against Kentucky, Ewers was 20-of-21 for 191 yards and two TDs to receivers in space, according to ESPN Research. But on throws against tight coverage, he was 0-of-10. Arkansas played a three-safety look against Texas, and Ewers threw for just 176 yards, including going 1-for-2 for minus-8 yards and three sacks when under duress in the first half.
If the defense can keep it tight, the Aggies’ offense just has to be opportunistic against a really stingy Texas defense, making plays with Marcel Reed‘s legs and keeping Texas off balance. — Dave Wilson
What’s going on in the Big 12?
There are nine — yes, nine — teams that still have a chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to the conference. That manages to be true while the team that has arguably been the best in the conference in November — Kansas, with wins against Iowa State, BYU and Colorado — is not among the group.
With Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all tied at 6-2, let’s take a look at the scenarios most likely to come into play.
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If all four win, the title game will be ASU vs. Iowa State.
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In a three-team tie between ASU, ISU and BYU, BYU is out.
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In a three-team tie between ISU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.
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In a three-team tie between ASU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.
In the case of a three-team tie with ASU, ISU and Colorado, it gets messy, so here is the exact language provided by the Big 12:
Got all that? Good. And at the risk of unnecessarily complicating things further, we’ll hit pause before running through all the other possibilities. — Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“Ryan Williams, I mean, yeah, he’s electric. He’s all this and that, but in my eyes, he ain’t really nobody to me. Ryan Williams is himself. He ain’t no big-time player to me. … Like I said, Bama is a big rival team. Every rival team I’ve played, I never lost to, and I will not lose to Bama while I’m here.” — Auburn freshman linebacker Demarcus Riddick
“I’ve said this from day one: I think when you have two programs as large as these two programs are, as close to each other as they are, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for them not to play. So it always felt weird not playing. So now to be playing and to be playing for what we’re playing for? Yeah, I’d imagine it’ll be pretty electric Saturday.” — Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, on facing Texas this weekend
“I don’t think you get really emotional about things like that. I think you’re a lot better coach when you stay composed, and you coach your players, and you teach your players what it’s going to take to win the game. It will be an emotional game, but I don’t get emotional about it. It’s an interstate rivalry. It’s a chance at a state championship. It’s a lot of pride. It’s a lot of history in the game. But the game’s played between the lines, between the players.” — Georgia coach Kirby Smart, on facing Georgia Tech during Rivalry Week
“There’s nothing that needs to be said. If you’re watching Godfather 2 & Hyman Roth is talking to Michael Corleone, you know what’s on in the background — it’s Notre Dame & USC. That’s all we got to say.” — Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden
“We’ve got to have that edge. And we will because we know what’s at stake. We felt what it’s like to not win this game. It is bad. It’s one of the worst things that’s happened to me in my life, quite honestly. Other than losing my father and a few other things, like it’s quite honestly, for my family, the worst thing that’s happened. So we can never have that happen again. Ever. And that’s been the approach all season.” — Ohio State coach Ryan Day, on facing Michigan after three straight losses in the series
“I said what I had to say about the College Football Playoff after the [Ohio State] game. The only thing I’m going to say is we’re sitting in a good spot. But we’ve got to take care of business. That’s that.” — Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti
“We’re playing for a trophy. We’re playing Missouri. They’re a rivalry game for us. … They beat [the] hell out of us last year. That should motivate us. The problem is a lot of the kids who are on the team and playing weren’t here the last year or two.” — Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, on motivating his team this week against Missouri this week after two consecutive losses in the series, including a 48-14 defeat last fall
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