Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players’ weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
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How shocking has the Vikings success been this season?
Shannon Sharpe and Dan Orlovsky debate whether the Vikings’ success has been a shock this season under quarterback Sam Darnold.
Matchups highlight: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (at Detroit Lions). Fantasy managers want players with motivation to perform for their Week 18 title matchups, and Vikings-Lions brings plenty of it, with the NFC North title and the conference’s No. 1 seed at stake in their Sunday Night Football matchup. Darnold, who has at least 21 fantasy points in five of his past seven games, is in as good a spot as most any quarterback. The opposing Lions have collapsed against quarterbacks recently, particularly since losing cornerback Carlton Davis III to a fractured jaw in Week 15. The past three starters to face them averaged 31.4 fantasy points.
Others to like: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (versus Buffalo Bills); Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to avoid: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (versus Chicago Bears). The Packers are locked into either the NFC’s No. 6 or 7 seed, and it’s unclear early in the week whether they’ll play their starters for the full contest. Even if they do, Love isn’t in the best position against the Bears, even if he did score a respectable 20.24 fantasy points in their Week 11 matchup. He hasn’t been a prominent part of the Packers’ offensive attack recently, averaging only 24.7 passing attempts in seven games since the bye week, whereas starting running back Josh Jacobs has averaged 19.6 rushing attempts during that span. Additionally, the past five quarterbacks to face the Bears have averaged only 16.8 points and 30.8 passing attempts.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals). Guerendo has been plenty productive as Christian McCaffrey‘s most recent fill-in, averaging 17.4 PPR fantasy points and 16.7 touches in the 49ers’ past three games, and he does enough in the receiving game to minimize the risks that come with negative game script. The Cardinals have struggled defending the run recently, as the past four starting running backs to face them have averaged 24.1 PPR fantasy points. And if you combine Rhamondre Stevenson‘s and Antonio Gibson‘s Week 15 contributions (the two have been sharing the New England Patriots’ chores recently), that weekly average increases to 26.2.
Others to like: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus New Orleans Saints); Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Cincinnati Bengals).
Matchup to avoid: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles). The caveat to this matchup is that the Eagles, locked into the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed, are likely to rest a good number of their starters. That said, the Eagles’ defensive scheme has been responsible for making them the second-toughest running back matchup in terms of both Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (minus-5.2) and PPR fantasy points per game allowed (16.5) and the toughest in terms of points per carry allowed (0.49) this season. The Eagles remain slightly favored despite being in “rest” mode, and Tracy has averaged just 10.3 points in six games since the bye.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jameson Williams, Lions (versus Vikings). I had him in the “avoid” section last week for his tough matchup against the 49ers, and he nevertheless found an opening to make a 41-yard catch on his way to 24.5 PPR fantasy points; here’s hoping he won’t flip the script while facing a much softer matchup this week. The Vikings have served up plenty of numbers to wide receivers this season — their 6.3 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed is most in the league, even if their 1.69 points per target average afforded to wide receivers is 10th-fewest — and Sunday’s finale has a whopping 57.5 opening over/under, signaling a lot of throwing. The Vikings have seen eight different wide receivers exceed 14 PPR fantasy points the past five weeks alone, tied with the Steelers for the league’s most.
Others to like: Jordan Addison, Vikings (at Lions); Kayshon Boutte, Patriots (versus Bills).
Matchup to avoid: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (versus 49ers). One of the more disappointing fantasy players this season, Harrison has fallen directly into the hands of his matchups, averaging 8.0 PPR fantasy points against his four toughest (using seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) and 19.8 against his four softest. The 49ers qualify as one of the former, and the rookie faced them back in Week 5 and ran 27 routes, saw seven targets and scored a mere 5.6 points in that game. Against opposing No. 1 wide receivers specifically, the 49ers have afforded only 1.50 points per target for the season, fewest in the league.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts). If you’re throwing darts at free-agent tight ends — and you might well be, if you roster Travis Kelce — consider Strange, thanks to this outstanding matchup. For the season, the Colts have afforded tight ends the most Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (4.1), third-most PPR fantasy points per target (2.04) and fifth-most total points per game (15.3). In the past five weeks alone, Hunter Henry (Week 13), Adam Trautman (Week 15) and Chig Okonkwo (Week 16) have scored in double-digits against the Colts.
Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (versus Cleveland Browns). “Go with the guys who got you this far” is a plenty legitimate strategy at this time of year, but among the notable fantasy tight ends, Andrews’ matchup is the one of most concern. The Browns have been one of the better defenses against the position all season, but especially over the past seven weeks. During that time, the only tight end who exceeded 10 PPR fantasy points against them was Dallas Goedert (12.5, Week 13), while opponents as a whole averaged 9.5 points from the position.
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