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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 17 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with a great pair of Christmas matchups (Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans) and a Thursday night NFC showdown (Seahawks-Bears). We have you covered with everything you need to know for the opening three games.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us what to know for every contest, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each game. The ESPN Research team provides a major stat to know and a betting nugget for each matchup, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks out game-plan keys, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds X factors. Finally, three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us final score picks for the three games.
Let’s start with the Chiefs and Steelers, who both have a chance to improve their AFC playoff standing with a win Wednesday.
Jump to a matchup:
KC-PIT | BAL-HOU | SEA-CHI
Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: KC -3 (43.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: Pass protection has been a problem for the Chiefs, who are on their fourth starting left tackle of the season and might not have right tackle Jawaan Taylor on Christmas because of a knee injury. That’s hardly ideal against the Steelers and T.J. Watt, particularly because of Patrick Mahomes‘ high ankle sprain. The one positive for Kansas City is it activated receiver Hollywood Brown on Saturday, and he made a couple of clutch catches in his first game back from a preseason sternoclavicular injury. — Adam Teicher
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers entered Saturday’s 34-17 loss to the Ravens with one healthy starting cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. They left Baltimore with a slew of replacements playing most of the snaps. Donte Jackson (back) missed the game, and a knee injury kept Porter out for most of the second half. But Santa Claus might bring some gifts to Pittsburgh. Jackson has a real chance to play, and wide receiver George Pickens and safety DeShon Elliott could be back in the fold. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Mahomes, taking on Mike Tomlin, enters this game with a 22-5 record (81.5% win rate) against head coaches who have won the Super Bowl. That’s the second-highest winning percentage by any starting quarterback in such games, trailing only Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (82.4%). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Steelers edge rushers Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig will combine for at least five pressures. They’re both dangerous pass rushers and could be facing guard Joe Thuney having to play left tackle or D.J. Humphries coming back from injury. — Walder
Game-plan key: Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs will need answers for Cover 3. Tomlin’s defense has played Cover 3 on 29.3% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Given those tendencies, look for Reid to set up Mahomes with three-level flood concepts that create intermediate throwing windows, using tight end Travis Kelce as the primary target. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage if they win or the Bills lose to the Jets on Sunday. The Steelers’ easiest path to winning the AFC North is winning their next two games and the Ravens losing out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy. He ran the second-most routes for the Chiefs in Week 16, trailing only Kelce. Worthy has had nine or more touches and at least 19 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He is one of the Chiefs’ top two receiving options and should remain busy against a Steelers defense that allows the 10th-most receiving yards per game to receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are no longer the favorite to win the AFC North, per ESPN BET. Pittsburgh has +120 odds, while Baltimore leads at -155. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 28, Steelers 20
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 23, Steelers 16
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 23
FPI prediction: KC, 55.6% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: BAL -5 (46.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: Ex-Titans running back Derrick Henry will look to continue his 2024 success against the Texans, his former AFC South rival. He has produced 102.2 rushing yards per game versus Houston, which is his fifth-highest average against any team. Houston ranks 10th in run defense (106.8 yards allowed per game) this season, but the Texans allowed 124 yards on the ground to Kansas City on Sunday. Henry is also coming off a season-high 162 rushing yards against the Steelers. — Jamison Hensley
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are 2-12 against Baltimore in franchise history and had their playoff run ended by the Ravens last season. This matchup is a prime opportunity for Houston to show that it has forged the talent gap and can go head-to-head with a team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season with an MVP-caliber quarterback in Lamar Jackson. But the Texans will be without wideout Tank Dell, who is out for the season after dislocating his kneecap and tearing his ACL against the Chiefs. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans have played the Ravens four times since 2019, and Houston has been outscored by an average of 22.8 points per game. Among teams that have met at least four times in that span, that is the largest average points-per-game differential versus a single opponent. — ESPN Research
1:43
Mark Andrews to McAfee: Lamar is playing better than ever
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and shares his excitement about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s play and the team’s positive momentum.
Bold prediction: The Ravens will hold the Texans under 14 points. From Weeks 1-9, the Ravens could barely stop the pass, ranking 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. But from Week 10 on, they rank first in the same category. The Texans don’t have a great ground game, despite a strong start to the season by Joe Mixon. I expect they’ll struggle to move the ball against Baltimore. — Walder
Game-plan key: The Texans will need to create explosive plays in the pass game versus Baltimore, so let’s focus on the early down play-action concepts in Bobby Slowik’s system. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has completed 15 passes of 20 or more air yards this season on first- and second-down play-action throws (10th-most in the league). Stroud can attack the schemed zone voids in the middle of the field, with wide receiver Nico Collins running the deep in-breakers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Ravens have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC North title through three scenarios over the next two weeks. Baltimore needs to win its last two and Pittsburgh to lose one of its last two. Or in Week 18, the Ravens need to beat the Browns and the Steelers to lose to the Bengals. Or Baltimore needs to win one of its last two games and Pittsburgh to lose out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Collins. After injuries to Stefon Diggs and Dell, Collins, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are the Texans’ top three receivers. Collins has been phenomenal, averaging 8.8 targets and 18.7 fantasy points per game this season. It’s safe to say he will see a massive target share against the Ravens, considering the circumstances. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Jackson entered last week’s matchup against the Steelers with +650 odds to win NFL MVP, per ESPN Bet. His chances increased to +375 after the Week 16 games. Buffalo’s Josh Allen still leads at -500. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Texans 20
Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Texans 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Texans 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.7% (by an average of 4.9 points)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: SEA -3.5 (43.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks are averaging 91.9 rushing yards per game, the third fewest in the NFL. They don’t run it often or well, ranking 30th in designed rush rate under first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Life might not get easier for their run game against Chicago now that Kenneth Walker III is hurt again. The Seahawks’ lead back returned Sunday from a calf injury that sidelined him for two games but then he suffered an ankle injury, which puts his availability in question on a short week. — Brady Henderson
Bears storyline to watch: Injuries to left tackle Braxton Jones and left guard Teven Jenkins forced the Bears to deploy their 15th different offensive line combination in a blowout loss to the Lions. Jones is done for the season due to a severe left ankle injury, so Chicago now will rely on backups to protect Caleb Williams‘ blindside amid a two-month losing streak. If Chicago loses its next two games, its 11 consecutive losses in a season will rank fourth behind the 2001 Panthers (15 straight), 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns (both 16 straight). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Williams’ nine-game losing streak is the second longest by any rookie quarterback taken No. 1 overall since 1950. He trails only Troy Aikman, who went 0-11 during his 1989 rookie campaign with the Cowboys. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Seahawks edge Uchenna Nwosu will record his first sack of the season. Nwosu’s playing time has gradually increased since being activated off injured reserve in Week 14. Though he has no sacks in four games, he has a 17% pass rush win rate at edge (roughly average) and likely will see plenty of Bears backup left tackle Larry Borom on Thursday. — Walder
Game-plan key: The Seattle defense has played man coverage on 47.4% of opponent dropbacks this season, the 11th most in the league. That rate could climb against Williams, who has averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt and posted a 53.6 QBR versus man coverage this season. And the Seahawks have the personnel in the secondary to challenge the Bears’ wide receivers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: Seattle’s only path to the playoffs is by winning the NFC West. That can happen over the next two weeks if the Rams lose their last two games or if the Seahawks win out and clinch strength of victory (SOV) over Los Angeles. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Seattle’s playoff hopes on the line, the second-year receiver could be key. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.5 targets and 19.2 fantasy points per game. The Bears’ defense allows the 10th-most passing yards per game, setting up a great opportunity for the Seahawks to attack through the air. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: After losing 34-17 to the Lions, the Bears are now 4-2 ATS in their past six as home underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 27, Bears 20
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 26, Bears 19
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 24, Bears 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 50.1% (by an average of 0.1 points)
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