Kansas to win it all? Creighton in the Final Four?
Would be nice to take those picks back, right?
That’s what this piece is all about. Revisiting our preseason predictions — and making changes moving forward. We’re just about halfway through the regular season; nonconference play has been left in 2024; and it’s now a sprint to Selection Sunday.
Much has changed since we initially made our picks on Nov. 4. Tennessee is the only team without a loss; Auburn has been arguably the most dominant team in America. Transfers have underwhelmed; freshmen have been sensational. Kansas doesn’t quite look like a title contender — North Carolina barely looks like an NCAA tournament team.
But what do the next two months have in store? ESPN college basketball writers Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi — the only one with Auburn in the Final Four in the preseason — and Myron Medcalf take a look back at their preseason predictions and make revised picks for the biggest storylines to watch down the stretch of the 2024-25 college basketball season.
The most interesting team
Borzello’s preseason pick: Indiana Hoosiers
Borzello’s midseason pick: Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the preseason, predicated heavily on the idea that transfers AJ Storr and Rylan Griffen would massively upgrade the Jayhawks’ ability to make shots and create offense. That hasn’t quite happened. Storr and Griffen have struggled, and Kansas has lost to Creighton, to Missouri and at home to West Virginia. But this is still a team that beat Duke on a neutral court in Las Vegas and beat Michigan State in Atlanta. The Jayhawks still have national champions Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams and All-American Hunter Dickinson. Transfer guard Zeke Mayo has been terrific recently. If Bill Self can coax a return to form out of Storr and/or Griffen, I’m not writing this team off yet.
Lunardi’s preseason pick: Alabama Crimson Tide
Lunardi’s midseason pick: Florida Gators
It’s not easy being the second-best undefeated team in your own league, but that was Florida’s story before its epic SEC opener at Kentucky. Tennessee gets to carry on with a perfect record, but the Gators — despite that 106-100 loss in Lexington — remain very much in the mix for a deep March run. The Gators have experience and scoring in the backcourt, size and skill up front, and the kind of explosive attack that will give every opponent nightmares. And we won’t have to wait long for another epic: Florida’s No. 3 offense hosts Tennessee’s No. 1 defense Tuesday.
Medcalf’s preseason pick: Memphis Tigers
Medcalf’s midseason pick: St. John’s Red Storm
Memphis is still intriguing, but over the weekend, Rick Pitino said his New Year’s resolution to give up alcohol had lasted only a few days because of the stress his team had caused him. This development came weeks after he had vowed to end his team’s participation in postgame handshake lines — because of his fear that they might lead to a fight. Remember, Pitino started the season by donning a blue sweater during Kentucky’s Big Blue Madness preseason event. That’s probably enough to earn “the most interesting” title, but St. John’s is also going against the grain and refusing to buy into the 3-point explosion that has changed college basketball (just 30.5% of the Red Storm’s shots are 3-point attempts, which ranks 350th in the country). Pitino also recently told a reporter he’s tired of questions about his team’s style. Plus, RJ Luis & Co. have lost just three games (all outside their home arena) this season by five points combined.
The first top-25 team to exit the NCAA tournament
Borzello’s preseason pick: Florida
Borzello’s midseason pick: Oklahoma Sooners
I still have concerns about Florida’s defense, as I did in the preseason — and giving up 106 points to Kentucky over the weekend doesn’t help — but the Gators’ offense should be more than enough to win a couple of games in March. There’s another SEC team, however, that could run into some issues. Oklahoma winning its first 13 games of the season is remarkable, and Porter Moser deserves to be in the discussion for Coach of the Year at this point, but there are a couple of trouble spots. The Sooners rely very heavily on freshman point guard Jeremiah Fears, and they really struggle to rebound and defend at the rim.
Lunardi’s preseason pick: Kentucky Wildcats
Lunardi’s midseason pick: Memphis
When the Tigers are good, they are very good. But when they aren’t — usually from turning the ball over at an unsustainable frequency or giving up too many second-chance points — they lose at home to Arkansas State. Memphis probably can’t avoid a gaudy record in the American, so rankings will rise, but the Tigers played their final top 100 opponent (North Texas) on Sunday. That might not bode well entering the NCAA tournament.
Medcalf’s preseason pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Medcalf’s midseason pick: Arkansas Razorbacks
I would have picked Rutgers again here, but they’re ranked 76th on KenPom and are not even on the NCAA tournament bubble. Arkansas, ranked 23rd in the latest poll, entered its 76-52 loss at No. 1 Tennessee as a team facing a multitude of concerns. But that loss, which could cost it a top-25 slot, was a pivotal moment for a squad searching for an identity. It starts with John Calipari, who said after the Tennessee loss that he wished he had gone forward with a team shootaround before the game, a customary pregame exercise for most teams. He said multiple players were “no-shows” as a result. The Razorbacks have talent and are solid on both sides of the ball, but they’ve lost most of their games against the teams they’ll have to beat to advance in the NCAA tournament. Calipari suffered multiple first-round exits at Kentucky with teams just like this one. That could happen again in March.
A non-power-conference school we should all root for
Borzello’s preseason pick: Grand Canyon Antelopes
Borzello’s midseason pick: UC San Diego Tritons
Tennessee, then UC San Diego. Those are the teams you’ll see when you look at the nation’s longest active winning streaks. The Tritons own a road win at Utah State and also beat capable mid-majors UC Santa Barbara, James Madison and Toledo away from home. It’s UC San Diego’s first season to be eligible for the NCAA tournament after reclassifying from Division II in 2020. Head coach Eric Olen has never coached anywhere else, becoming an assistant at UCSD in 2004 and taking over the top spot in 2013.
Lunardi’s preseason pick: Dayton Flyers
Lunardi’s midseason pick: Utah State Aggies
The Aggies have been so good that they’re on track for a third straight NCAA bid for the first time since Stew Morrill turned the trick from 2009 to 2011. The difference? This time Utah State will have done it with three different coaches. Ryan Odom went 26-9 in 2022-23 before going back east to VCU. Danny Sprinkle went 28-7 last season, including an NCAA tourney win over TCU, before taking Great Osobor with him to Washington. And now Jerrod Calhoun has come in from Youngstown State and gone 14-1 with an entirely new cast of characters. Throw in three Quad 1 wins already plus another three in Quad 2 and the Aggies could have even more momentum this March.
Medcalf’s preseason pick: Grambling Tigers
Medcalf’s midseason pick: Bradley Braves
You should still root for Grambling, but America should also get behind Bradley. The Braves are 4-0 in Missouri Valley play; they’re America’s top 3-point shooting team (43.1 percent); and they’re led by one of shortest point guards in the country. Duke Deen is a 5-foot-8 giant who might be the greatest player in the country, pound for pound. He’s averaging 15.1 PPG and 4.1 APG. Plus, he has also connected on 42% of his shots from beyond the arc this season. Get to know Deen and Bradley now before they threaten to bust brackets in March.
The player everyone should be paying a lot more attention to
Borzello’s preseason pick: Markus Burton, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Borzello’s midseason pick: Javon Small, West Virginia Mountaineers
I’m not off the Burton bandwagon by any stretch — after missing seven games with a knee injury, he made his return this past weekend, scoring 23 points off the bench. But we need to talk more about West Virginia’s Small. The former Oklahoma State and East Carolina transfer is having the best season of his college career, and he has carried the Mountaineers to a surprising 11-2 start and potential top-25 spot. Small is averaging 19.2 points and 4.9 assists — including 31 in a win over Gonzaga and the game-winning free throw against Kansas.
Lunardi’s preseason pick: Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
Lunardi’s midseason pick: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida
Auburn’s Broome, Alabama’s Mark Sears and the Tennessee guards get all the attention, but the most indispensable player in the SEC might be Florida’s Clayton. The 6-3 senior, in his second year since leaving Iona and Rick Pitino, has winning numbers across the board. He shoots 1-pointers (.848 FT), 1-pointers (.629 2PT) and 3-pointers (.384 3PT) all remarkably well. He also leads the Gators in assists and minutes. All told, Clayton’s across-the-board improvement is the top reason — among many — that the Gators can challenge Auburn, Tennessee and the rest of a loaded SEC.
Medcalf’s preseason pick: Kam Jones, Marquette Golden Eagles
Medcalf’s midseason pick: Ian Jackson, North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina has been a turbulent program all season. The Tar Heels, thus far, have fallen short of preseason expectations (not a first-time occurrence for Hubert Davis). But if Saturday’s thrilling win over Notre Dame after Elliot Cadeau‘s four-point play might have saved their season, Jackson, a 6-4 freshman, could be the catalyst for a potential North Carolina resurgence. Since he was moved into the starting lineup on Dec. 29, he has averaged 25.3 PPG over the past three games. The Tar Heels are still trying to find a rhythm, but Jackson’s rise could change their fortunes.
A player with an outside shot to win the Wooden Award
Borzello’s preseason pick: Kam Jones, Marquette, and Braden Smith, Purdue Boilermakers
Borzello’s midseason pick: PJ Haggerty, Memphis
My preseason dark horse picks were pretty elite, to be fair. I think Broome is the clear favorite to win it at this point, but if we had to dig a little deeper for a sleeper pick, Memphis’ Haggerty deserves to be in the discussion. He’s averaging nearly 22 points and shooting 41% from 3 for a top-20 Memphis team that shouldn’t lose more than once or twice the rest of the season. He had 22 against UConn, 27 against Auburn, 25 against Missouri. If Memphis is in the top 10 at 27-4 come mid-March, Haggerty could get some votes if he keeps this up.
Lunardi’s preseason pick: Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
Lunardi’s midseason pick: Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
I’m going to stick with Dickinson, especially if Kansas winning by 51 points at UCF on Sunday is a sign of things to come for the Jayhawks. Dickinson played only 23 minutes in the historic blowout, but he put up his first “Dickinsonian” line of the season: 27 points, 12-of-16 2-point shooting, 9 rebounds (4 offensive), 3 blocks and only 1 personal foul. That kind of performance is a nice way to shake off losing three of five games coming in. If the real Kansas is back, the real Hunter Dickinson will be in line for some hardware.
Medcalf’s preseason pick: L.J. Cryer, Houston Cougars
Medcalf’s midseason pick: Eric Dixon, Villanova Wildcats
The Wooden Award is typically given to a great player on an excellent team. That could hurt Dixon’s case, with Villanova’s 3-4 start to the season. But he also has helped this team win seven of its past eight games. And his numbers are ridiculous: 25.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 49% from the 3-point line. I get it. Villanova is a squad that’s fighting to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament field. Dixon’s production, however, rivals the output of any player in America right now. He deserves that recognition.
2024-25 Final Four picks (* indicates national champion)
Borzello’s preseason picks: Kansas*, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
Borzello’s midseason picks: Auburn*, Duke, Iowa State, Illinois
Lunardi’s preseason picks: Kansas*, Duke, Auburn, Creighton
Lunardi’s midseason picks: Auburn*, Duke, Kansas, Florida
Medcalf’s preseason picks: Alabama*, Duke, Kansas, Houston
Medcalf’s midseason picks: Tennessee*, Auburn, Duke, Kentucky
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