The NHL’s new midseason festivities, the 4 Nations Face-Off, was an emphatic success in the betting world, producing huge handle across the tournament, including a record-breaking championship game.
The league will now look to capitalize on that momentum in the second half of its season, beginning with a nearly full slate on Saturday when many of the top teams will be in action. Here are the top betting storylines to watch as the chase for the Stanley Cup heats up.
Hellebuyck and the Hart
Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is having one of the best goalie seasons in recent memory, posting a 2.06 GAA and 34 wins to propel his team to the best record in the league. It has him as the Vezina Trophy favorite with -4000 odds at ESPN BET, but his performance has been so impactful that he’s starting to gain momentum in a campaign for the Hart Trophy.
How rare is it for a goalie to win the NHL’s most valuable player award? A goalie has won the Hart Trophy only seven times since 1924 and only once since 2003 to Montreal’s Carey Price in 2015.
Hellebuyck currently sits at +320 to win the league’s highest individual honor, per ESPN BET odds, trailing Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (-115) and Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon (+250), who won the award in 2020 and 2024, respectively. Hellebuyck was as long as 250-1 earlier in the season and now sports the shortest Hart odds of any goalie since Price in 2015, according to ESPN BET.
The American goaltender’s undeniable greatness amid his previously long odds is putting bookmakers in a bind.
“If Hellebuyck can pull off the double, the Vezina and the Hart, the customers will do very well on that, mostly on the Hart side of things,” Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve told ESPN. “I always tend to be careful to price those and to make goalies short. I’m always big on making goalies more of long shots because, just historically, it doesn’t happen.”
The major sportsbooks all have Hellebuyck in their top four for handle, with ESPN BET (18.4%) and BetMGM (17.3%) ranking him second for money taken; the latter names Hellebuyck as its top liability in the market.
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Connor Hellebuyck locks in with interesting warmup technique
USA goaltender Connor Hellebuyck gets ready for the 4 Nations Face-Off championship against Canada with an interesting warmup.
Ovi on a mission
One of the NHL’s strongest storylines all season has been Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record of 894. As the NHL restarts action, the Washington Capitals captain sits at 879 — 15 away from tying the record and 16 from breaking it with 27 games remaining.
The excitement surrounding the record chase, along with the Capitals’ surprising dominance of the Eastern Conference, has made Ovechkin and his team a very popular betting option throughout the season. Bookmakers expect that momentum to continue.
“Game to game, Ovechkin still always has the shortest price to score a goal and he still sees action live,” said Shreeve. “[Bettors are] really only interested in betting on Ovechkin to score that goal, which again has been great. For us and for the customers, it’s just a win-win, win or lose on that day. Big picture wise, it’s a win as long as this thing can keep going.”
Most major sportsbooks are running some form of season-long special on Ovechkin breaking the record, with ESPN BET currently showing +175 for it to come to fruition. While some sharp money is taking the heavy juice on the “No” side, the large majority of tickets are taking the “Yes” side of the wager, creating a big liability for books, especially if the future Hall of Famer can come out motivated and rested following the 4 Nations Face-Off.
“We’ve got a significant loss on it if it does happen and that’ll also grow now that he only needs 16,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Right now, he’s an underdog to get it done, but a little bit of rest and he’ll come out, I’m sure, blazing in the second half of the season.”
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Alex Ovechkin moves 16 goals away from breaking Gretzky’s record
Alex Ovechkin scores his 879th career goal to move 16 goals away from eclipsing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record
Bubble teams
As the NHL enters its final stretch, certain teams on the fringes of the playoff picture will be making their pushes to compete for the Stanley Cup.
The three most popular bets to make the playoffs at ESPN BET, in order, have been the Detroit Red Wings (+220), Montreal Canadiens (13-1) and Columbus Blue Jackets (+500), a sentiment shared across sportsbooks.
“The Red Wings have been bet all year,” said Avello, referencing Detroit’s solid run that has them in the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot. “If they could continue to play this way, that’s one of our bigger losses if they would win the Cup and also one of our biggest losses if they make the playoffs.”
“Columbus and Montreal are certainly good for the customers if they can make the playoffs, along with Detroit,” Shreeve said. “Detroit and Columbus aren’t teams that bettors back night-to-night, but they will take them if they are getting plus money to win a division or to make the playoffs.”
BetMGM also fits the Canadiens in that category, specifically naming them as the fourth-least-bet team in the NHL for money line wagers.
Cup contenders
A heavy, though unexpected liability, is the Capitals, who opened as long as 100-1 to win the championship and have since come down to as short as +1100 amid their run to the top of the Eastern Conference. DraftKings and FanDuel both report Washington in their top four money attractors in the Stanley Cup market, while BetMGM counts them as a popular play on a game-to-game basis.
Meanwhile, NHL-leading Winnipeg, another relatively unexpected success story, shows up at 14-1 at ESPN BET to win the Stanley Cup but has attracted only moderate fervor among bettors for individual games and futures.
The preseason favorite Edmonton Oilers still sit atop ESPN BET’s Stanley Cup winner odds board, now at +600. The 2024 Stanley Cup runners-up continue to be a popular wager among the public, taking the most bets (9.6%) and handle (14.3%) at ESPN BET, and posing a large caution at almost all books.
“We’ve got big liabilities, good winnings for the customers if Edmonton [wins],” said Shreeve. “Edmonton is scary.”
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