Turning the calendar to March means the NBA stretch run is underway. With a little more than a month until the end of the regular season, there are still important questions to answer about the top title contenders as well as teams aspiring to deep playoff runs and those hoping to simply crash the party through the play-in tournament.
At the top end, the Boston Celtics will focus on bringing a record-extending 19th championship banner to TD Garden, but the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to convert the top spots in their respective conferences into a run like the Celtics made during the 2024 playoffs.
A tier below, four teams — the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, star-studded Los Angeles Lakers, deep Memphis Grizzlies and loaded-up New York Knicks — are trying to prove they belong in the inner circle of title contenders. Those three Western Conference teams are jockeying for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and home-court advantage for at least two rounds.
As usual, the rest of the playoff race out West is as crowded as rush-hour traffic. Five teams are separated by a single game in the standings from sixth place (currently the Golden State Warriors) to tenth (Dallas Mavericks). One of those five will advance directly to the playoffs as the sixth seed, while the other four likely will battle it out for the final two spots in the play-in tournament.
There’s a greater divide between the top six in the East and the potential play-in teams, especially for the fourth spot. The Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are all competing for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
Using on-the-ground reporting and analysis, ESPN’s team of experts break down the biggest questions for all of the postseason contenders as they begin to look ahead to the playoffs and beyond. — Kevin Pelton
Eastern Conference
No. 1 and No. 2 seeds
Did the Cleveland Cavaliers do enough at the trade deadline to give themselves a real shot at getting past Boston in the playoffs?
They would not be favored in a series against Boston, but the Cavaliers proved they have made up significant ground following last week’s road victory versus the Celtics. De’Andre Hunter is a whopping plus-67 in his eight games as a Cav, and he demonstrated on Friday he can play effective situational defense against Boston’s Jayson Tatum. There is no way to shut Tatum down, but Hunter has played hundreds of possessions against Tatum in his career and held him to under 40% shooting. The Cavs are firmly in control to earn home-court advantage, which might not worry the Celtics, who are the best road team in the NBA. It could, however, prove comforting to the Cavs in getting to start a series at home. — Brian Windhorst
At 7.5 games behind the Cavs, will the Boston Celtics (who have one of the easiest remaining schedules) make a push for the No. 1 spot?
The focus in Boston is going to be on one thing alone: getting to the playoffs healthy and at full strength. The Celtics are not worried about going on the road to face the Cavaliers in a potential Eastern Conference finals. Remember, this is a Boston team that has won a Game 7 on the road to make it to the NBA Finals (in 2022, against a Jimmy Butler III-led Miami Heat squad), and one that has as much postseason experience as any current NBA team.
Would the Celtics love to catch Cleveland? Sure, any team would prefer to be the top seed. But Boston is unlikely to sacrifice its playoff preparation to try to pursue that. — Tim Bontemps
2:20
Cavs stun Celtics behind Mitchell’s 41-point performance
Donovan Mitchell drops 41 points to rally the Cavaliers back from a 20-point deficit against the Celtics.
No. 3, 4, 5 and 6 seeds
How do the New York Knicks put themselves in the conversation alongside the Celtics and Cavs?
It’s not rocket science: New York needs to defend at a far higher level — one befitting of a Tom Thibodeau-coached club — to stand any chance against Cleveland or Boston in the playoffs. But for several reasons, that likely isn’t a switch that can just be flipped at this point — mainly because the starters have played longer minutes than any other team’s, raising the question of whether they have a higher level left for the postseason.
New York ranks 19th overall on defense but a dismal 29th (behind the Toronto Raptors) when defending top-10 offenses, per ESPN Research. No team has surrendered a higher 3-point mark than the Knicks; that presents a huge problem against the Celtics and Cavs, who boast the highest and fourth-highest attempt rates, respectively. Less drop coverage is one potential fix, and having center Mitchell Robinson back from his season-long absence obviously helps. But other changes figure to be necessary to close the huge gap we’ve seen all season between the Knicks and the two teams ahead of them. — Chris Herring
How do the Milwaukee Bucks avoid last season’s early exit?
Milwaukee’s simplest solution to try to improve its fortune after back-to-back first round playoff exits: Make sure Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy. He did not play a minute during the 2024 playoff series against Indiana and was limited by an injury during the 2023 first-round loss to Miami. Antetokounmpo has tried to put less stress on his body this season by slightly altering his style of play, and the Bucks believe it will help keep him healthier in the long run and give the team its first chance to see the Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard together for a playoff series. The duo has been productive on the court together this season, with a net rating of plus-5.2, but the Bucks are betting they can reach another level in the playoffs. — Jamal Collier
What will it take for the Indiana Pacers to make another deep postseason run this season?
Better defense, honestly. We know Indiana can score, particularly when Tyrese Haliburton is aggressive and scoring at a high level the way he has been doing lately (averaging 23.2 points since the All-Star break). The question for Indiana is generally on the other end, where it ranks in the league’s bottom third. Can coach Rick Carlisle push the right buttons in terms of when and how the Pacers utilize their zone defense? Can Andrew Nembhard throw off opposing ball handlers by pressing full-court, like the Pacers did when they sprung the strategy on the first-place Cavs in January for a come-from-behind win? Given their less-than-stellar rebounding and fouling metrics, the Pacers likely need to find something they can occasionally hang their hat on defensively if they want to make another deep postseason run. — Herring
Making the playoffs seems like a given, but can the Detroit Pistons win a series for the first time since 2008?
The Pistons already have had a successful season, so why not get greedy. Thanks to the futility of the Eastern Conference, Detroit’s spot in the top six is all but secured. But if the Pistons can start stacking up some wins down the stretch (it’s been a while since anyone has typed that), they could position themselves for either the No. 4 or No. 5 seed and face a team such as Indiana for a chance at an upset. First-time All-Star Cade Cunningham is having a season worthy of making All-NBA, and Detroit has found a formula with him playing well surrounded by capable veterans. With the right matchup, the Pistons could be a dangerous playoff team with nothing to lose. — Collier
Play-in: Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls
Which of the four current play-in teams has the best shot at a postseason run?
None of these four teams is going to score very much, as they all rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency. But at least the Magic can prevent their opponents from scoring. Orlando has the second-best defensive rating in the league and therefore has the best chance of slowing the high-powered offenses of the Cavaliers or the Celtics in the first round. The Magic also have the brightest star power in the East’s play-in picture, as both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have the potential to take over a playoff game.
Granted, Banchero has struggled since returning from an oblique tear, and the Magic rank 28th in offense, ahead of only the lowly Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards. But after the trade deadline, the Hawks (who traded De’Andre Hunter and lost Jalen Johnson to a season-ending injury), Heat (who traded Jimmy Butler III) and Bulls (who traded Zach LaVine) all have very low ceilings, while the Magic can at least ascend in theory. We’ve still scarcely seen what the full-strength version of this roster can do, as Banchero, Wagner and Jalen Suggs — now out indefinitely due to left knee surgery — have shared the court for only six games this season. — Zach Kram
Missing the playoffs
Are the Philadelphia 76ers headed for a shake-up after a disappointing season?
That’s one of the big questions remaining across the league. Joel Embiid has been shut down for the season due to ongoing issues with his left knee, and Paul George could be following close behind. The 76ers, having entered the campaign with championship aspirations, are now trying to hang onto their top-six protected first-round pick in this year’s draft. It is a staggering turn of events. All questions around the 76ers, however, come back to one topic: Embiid and his health moving forward. The one constant around the 76ers for the better part of the past decade has been that whenever the superstar center has been on the court, the team plays at a different level. This season was the first time those two things haven’t happened. No matter what other decisions are made in Philadelphia moving forward, figuring out what the path back to making those things a reality again — if one exists — is the only thing that truly matters. — Bontemps
Western Conference
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder take their two-big lineup into the playoffs?
Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein figure prominently into the Thunder’s playoff plans, but it remains to be determined whether Oklahoma City will utilize the two big men as starters alongside each other. That could be a series-to-series decision based on matchups or even a mid-series adjustment. The Thunder have outscored opponents by 20 points in 97 minutes with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the court together. It’s a very small sample size, but the duo has a surprisingly poor defensive rating (116.5).
For the first time when both bigs were available, coach Mark Daigneault opted to bring Hartenstein off the bench during Friday’s win over the Hawks. “That was like a three-second conversation,” Daigneault told reporters of his talk with Hartenstein, who recorded a double-double in 27 minutes. — Tim MacMahon
No. 2 to 5 seeds
How has the Los Angeles Lakers‘ defense thrived after the Anthony Davis trade and is it sustainable?
After a win last week at the Portland Trail Blazers, Lakers coach JJ Reddick detailed that he had been struck by a “revelation” earlier in the season. “There’s actually only one cheat code in the NBA, and that’s playing hard,” Redick said in the midst of his team winning 16 out of 19 games since late January to surge up the standings. The effort has been the fuel to the Lakers’ revamped defense, but the personnel change cannot be overlooked. Davis was the team’s best defender, but the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith and the contributions from Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt — both finally healthy — have given the Lakers’ defense a constant wave of ball pressure to disrupt opposing offenses.
Add in the competitive spirit shared by LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, and it’s a cohesive defensive group night to night. “LeBron’s playing at an All-NBA defense level,” Redick said. “There’s no conservation of energy [from James] on that end of the floor.” The biggest question is if this team could be peaking too soon: Does it have enough depth to get through the regular season without burning out the 40-year-old James for an extended postseason run? — Dave McMenamin
2:33
Windy: Lakers winning in a way that’s ‘truly sustainable’
Brian Windhorst joins “Get Up” to reveal why the Lakers have been winning games in a sustainable way this season.
What’s behind the Denver Nuggets‘ quiet ascension in the West and will it carry into the playoffs?
Jamal Murray has been the biggest difference between the Nuggets’ relatively sluggish start and their success since the first quarter of the season. Murray averaged 17.8 points while shooting 42.0% from the floor and 33.3% from 3-point range during Denver’s 11-10 start. His numbers since then: 23.8 points per game, 49.8% from the floor, 43.2% from deep. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic‘s dominance gives Denver a chance to contend for a championship, but the Nuggets need Murray to serve as a co-star. Murray has a history of meeting the moment in the playoffs, averaging 24.2 points and 6.2 assists in 65 career postseason games, stats that are significant upgrades from his regular-season production (17 PPG and 4.6 APG). — MacMahon
Are the Memphis Grizzlies finally ready to take a serious postseason step forward?
General manager Zach Kleiman never had a problem with the team’s boisterous swagger so long as the players could back it up on the floor. That didn’t happen last season for a variety of reasons, including Ja Morant‘s suspension and subsequent season-ending injury. Memphis reflected on that rough campaign, in which Jaren Jackson Jr. emerged as a bright spot, and entered this season with a newfound maturity and sense of urgency — highlighted by Jackson’s second All-Star appearance. The club also installed a new offense. Will that be enough? It should be.
One concern, though, is that Memphis plans to lean on rookies Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells to play significant minutes in the postseason. It’s a situation already being monitored by the brass as the regular season winds down. Coach Taylor Jenkins said his team will be prepared to adjust accordingly. — Michael C. Wright
Do the Houston Rockets have enough scoring options for a deep playoff run?
Amen Thompson emerged as an offensive playmaker during Fred VanVleet‘s 11-game absence, so much so that the second-year guard remained in the starting lineup when VanVleet returned. That gives Houston two ball handlers capable of scoring and facilitating the offense for leading scorers Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. VanVleet’s sprained ankle and overlapping long-term injuries to Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason wreaked havoc on Houston’s scoring punch this season, but each of them is fully healthy again for the first time since December.
The Rockets aren’t superb offensively — ranking 15th in offensive rating (113.5) — but they are a top-five defensive team and will improve offensively down the stretch now that the club is finally whole again. Still, it’s unlikely the Rockets will be able to keep up in the West against high-scoring squads such as Denver, Oklahoma City and Memphis. — Wright
Nos. 6 to 10: play-in teams
What is the Golden State Warriors‘ ceiling after adding Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline?
Draymond Green has said the ceiling for the Warriors is a fifth championship for him, Stephen Curry and coach Steve Kerr. That is how much the Warriors have been revitalized by Butler, going 8-1 since the trade. Butler has injected the team with belief and swagger, with Kerr calling him the “connector” the team has needed all season. His style of play has fit perfectly alongside Curry and Green. Though Butler is still below his career average in points per game, he provides Curry with a proven playoff performer and scorer when the game’s greatest shooter is double-teamed. Butler can get to the free throw line, and his ability to make the extra pass has unlocked perimeter offense for the likes of Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody and Quinten Post. Curry told ESPN before the trade that the Warriors believe they can beat anyone in a seven-game series due to their championship pedigree and experience. Add Playoff Jimmy and the Warriors feel they can surprise people perhaps with another title run like the one in 2022. — Ohm Youngmisuk
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Why Warriors’ confidence is sky high with Jimmy Butler
Ohm Youngmisuk breaks down the Warriors’ newfound energy since acquiring Jimmy Butler.
Do the LA Clippers have enough to get out of the first round for the first time since 2021?
If the Clippers can keep their starters healthy, they have a chance to get out of the first round. The problem is not only Kawhi Leonard‘s unpredictable health; James Harden is beginning to show signs of fatigue after carrying much of the early-season load while Leonard returned from his offseason knee issues. Norman Powell, who has been having a career season, has been dealing with injuries since the All-Star break.
The Clips continue playing elite defense (third overall) under coach Ty Lue and first-year assistant Jeff Van Gundy. When he’s healthy, Leonard is one of the all-time great playoff performers. Harden’s early-season performances earned him an 11th All-Star appearance, and Powell had a case for what would have been his first appearance. Ivica Zubac also has become an interior force, averaging his first career double-double. And the midseason additions of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons bolster the second unit with perimeter shooting and defense. — Youngmisuk
Why haven’t the Minnesota Timberwolves been able to break through this season?
It’s been a season of adjustment and frustration after the Timberwolves, fresh off a Western Conference finals appearance, traded All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns days before training camp. Minnesota has struggled at times to figure out fit issues with Julius Randle, the headliner of the return for Towns, as Randle and star guard Anthony Edwards both have a tendency to pound the dribble. But Minnesota’s biggest problem has been protecting late leads. Edwards, who is still in the early stages of his development at age 23, often falls into bad habits of playing hero ball down the stretch of games. He is shooting 39.8% from the floor in clutch situations, when the Wolves have been outscored by 48 points in his 117 minutes. — MacMahon
What’s at stake if the Dallas Mavericks don’t reach the playoff this season?
The Mavericks took a massive risk by trading Luka Doncic, a generational talent who has yet to hit what should be his prime years, only months removed from a trip to the NBA Finals. The deal deeply wounded the soul of a fan base that hoped and believed that Doncic’s entire career would play out in Dallas, just like his predecessor Dirk Nowitzki. A series of PR mistakes in the wake of the most shocking trade in NBA history only made matters worse. Failure to make the playoffs, especially if the Lakers go on a run, could create the sort of apathy that Mavs fans haven’t felt since the 1990s, when the franchise was a league laughingstock. New team governor Patrick Dumont has voiced strong support of GM Nico Harrison, tuning out the frequent “Fire Nico” cries from fans. — MacMahon
Are DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine once again doomed to the play-in with the Sacramento Kings?
DeRozan is third all time in career play-in scoring, having appeared in five games, four of them as LaVine’s teammate with the Chicago Bulls. (LaVine missed last year’s play-in due to injury.) Now that both of them are in Sacramento, the road to the playoffs still seems headed through the play-in tournament. The Kings are in the middle of a five-team race for the No. 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff spot. But with the weakest point differential in this group (+1.5) and the hardest remaining schedule, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the BPI projections have them in the play-in 87% of the time.
Oh, and the all-time leading play-in scorer? It’s new Sacramento center Jonas Valanciunas, who has appeared in the play-in with the Grizzlies and the New Orleans Pelicans all five years it has existed and is on track to make it six straight. — Pelton
In danger of missing the playoffs
How does the remainder of the season impact Kevin Durant‘s future with the Phoenix Suns?
It likely doesn’t. You’d never rule anything out in the NBA, but it also is clear that both the Suns and Durant are contemplating a future apart. The Suns have a failing and hugely expensive big three, and that’s untenable in the apron era. Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will make a combined $150 million next season, the most expensive trio in the league, and they’re not working together. Beal has a no-trade clause, and he made it very clear he doesn’t intend to waive it. Booker is deemed untouchable and doesn’t want to leave. That leaves the options as status quo or trading Durant as part of a roster restructuring. The status quo is unacceptable, so you start to see how this trade Durant reality comes into focus. The Suns apparently already came to this conclusion because they had talks with several teams about moving Durant at the deadline. The conditions in Phoenix have only deteriorated since. — Windhorst
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