As we write this, Arsenal are headed toward consecutive second-place finishes and are through to the semifinal of the Champions League. Progress is evident compared to Mikel Arteta’s first full season in charge, 2020-21, when they finished eighth. It’s a sign of how much the squad has been overhauled that of the 11 most-used players that season, just two — Bukayo Saka and Gabriel — are still at the club in significant roles. They’ve steadily added starters as they progressed up the table and have been able to hang on to their better players in doing so.
That has taken them to the brink. The question is how they push on to the next level.
Arteta is at the stage where he has more clout than most of his peer-coaches, and he’ll be working with new sporting director Andrea Berta, who joins after nearly 12 years at Atletico Madrid. Berta only ever worked with one coach (Diego Simeone) at Atleti, and how quickly and effectively the relationship with Arteta blossoms (or not) will inform how well they do.
Despite posting losses the past two seasons, we believe they’re in very good shape in terms of both the Premier League‘s Profit and Sustainability rules and their UEFA equivalent. The run to the Champions League semifinal (and maybe more) should provide a further windfall and two highly paid veteran midfielders — Jorginho and Thomas Partey — are potentially leaving as free agents, though Arteta seemed to suggest recently that Partey could extend his deal. This would give the club an extra £20m to play with on their wage bill, which they’ll need since a number of players will need new contracts.
Beyond that, we believe the club’s net transfer budget could be somewhere between £80m and £100m. We should also note that according to multiple reports, the club have reached an agreement in principle with Real Sociedad central midfielder Martín Zubimendi. He has a release clause of €60m (£52m) so it appears the club are poised to sign him this summer. However, it’s not something you can take for granted since, in theory, any other club could pay the same fee and he could yet change his mind.
Editor’s note: This is the first in this year’s series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe.
Keep/dump ground rules
Remember: This is our assessment of what we think the club should do, player for player, with the squad at their disposal. It’s not what we think they will actually do, though sometimes the two will align. That said, we take into account what we know of the club, coaching staff and player preferences, as well as their financial situation and any other factor that we think will impact personnel moves.
Where we disagree, or where we think our rationale is worth explaining, we’ve noted below.
Goalkeepers
David Raya (29 years old, contract expires in 2028)
Verdict: Keep
Neto (35, 2026, on loan from Bournemouth)
Marcotti: Arteta obviously likes him and it’s good to have a veteran back up. He arrived on loan because Bournemouth took Kepa on loan from Chelsea as a starter, so it will depend on what they end up doing. In any case, he’s a year away from free agency, and if the choice for him is to back up Kepa at Bournemouth or Raya at Arsenal, it’s no choice at all.
You may need to give him a two-year deal, but I doubt there would be much of a transfer fee involved given his age.
Verdict: Keep
Tommy Setford (19, 2028 with club option for additional year)
Ogden: I’d keep him in the squad and have him as third-choice, playing in early rounds of Carabao Cup. Maybe Arsenal should have him in the same emerging role that Caoimhín Kelleher occupied under Alisson and Adrián three to four years ago.
Marcotti: Highly rated, but has played just one first-team game and that was in the League Cup. Loaning him out is a no-brainer.
Verdict: Keep, but loan out
Karl Hein (23, 2026)
Marcotti: He spent last season as a starter at Valladolid in LaLiga, but it’s hard to judge him on that given how poor the team was. There’s a player there, but probably not an Arsenal-caliber keeper. I don’t think it would be very expensive to extend him for another couple years and send him on loan. That would preserve his transfer value and maybe provide a pathway for his return to the club if he does really well.
Ogden: You basically have to decide between him and Neto, you’re not going to keep both. Neto makes more sense as a back up and then you could have a youngster as your third keeper. You obviously won’t get much for Hein with a year left on his contract, but you can get a few million.
Verdict: Split between extend and loan out, and move on
Defenders
William Saliba (24 years old, contract expires in 2027)
Ogden: He’s entering the final two seasons of his contract, you have to extend his deal. He’s one of the best around in the center-back position and you know some big clubs are going to be ready to spend a fortune for him. Real Madrid have already been linked with him, so extending him would allow you to get full value if he chooses to leave.
Verdict: Keep and extend
Gabriel Magalhães (27, 2027)
Marcotti: He’s three years older than Saliba and he’s done well, but I wouldn’t be in a rush to extend him. Partly because he’s coming off season-ending surgery, partly because you have two other left-footed center-back options at the club in Riccardo Calafiori and Jakub Kiwior.
Ogden: He’s a modern-day Martin Keown, physical and intense, but I agree — let’s wait and see how he does when he returns.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend
Jakub Kiwior (25, 2028)
Marcotti: They signed him as cover when Saliba was injured, but since then other options have emerged. If everybody is fit I’d assume he’d be fourth-choice at center-back. At his age and with the years remaining on his contract, you can get a good fee for him, maybe north of the £20m they paid for him.
Ogden: I wouldn’t be in a rush to let him go. You have to assess how Gabriel is when he returns from injury and both Jurriën Timber and Calafiori have had injuries. Wait a while, maybe shift him in January, but you need a squad and he is a valuable option to have.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep for now but listen to offers
Riccardo Calafiori (22, 2029)
Ogden: I really like him, he’s brought a tenacity to the club that was missing.
Verdict: Keep
Myles Lewis-Skelly (18, 2026)
Ogden: Obviously he needs an extension, but that’s not going to be an issue. He needs to be rewarded with a long contract and that has to be the priority.
Marcotti: He’s had a tremendous impact since breaking into the first team. To me the question is whether his future is at left-back: This is a guy who played mostly in central midfield at youth level and let’s not forget Saka broke into the Arsenal first team as a left-back. Obviously if they sign Zubimendi, there won’t be much space in midfield with Rice, Merino and Odegaard too. That said, Timber and Calafiori are options at left-back too and, I guess, so is Zinchenko if he stays.
You clearly extend him, but I think you have to think hard about his development.
Verdict: Keep and extend
Oleksandr Zinchenko (28, 2026)
Ogden: You have to move him on this summer, he wants to play. I think you can get £10m for him.
Marcotti: I agree with looking to move him. I’m not sure you’ll get that much for him, but it’s clear he’s not in Arteta’s plans.
Verdict: Move on
Kieran Tierney (27, 2025)
Marcotti: He’s been out on loan, and he clearly wants to play. This is a chance to reset his career.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Ben White (27, 2028 with club option for additional year)
Ogden: Nothing to do here. Get him fit and keep him playing.
Verdict: Keep
Jurrien Timber (23, 2028)
Verdict: Keep
Takehiro Tomiyasu (26, 2026 with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: He played just seven minutes this season and won’t return until 2026. There’s not much to do other than get him fit. If he returns to his level, he’s a very handy guy to have around.
Verdict: Keep
Nuno Tavares (25, 2026, on loan at Lazio)
Marcotti: He had a good season at Lazio and reportedly there’s an obligation to make his move permanent for around €7.5m, and they’ll probably take him. Arsenal have more than enough left-backs, and you’re getting some money back.
Verdict: Move on
Midfielders
Thomas Partey (31 years old, contract expires in 2025)
Ogden: I’d let him go. I know Arteta hinted last week that a deal could be done to extend his contract, but Arsenal can do better, especially if they are recruiting from a position of strength.
Marcotti: He’s been doing well late in the season, but there are many reasons why it’s time to move on including, but not limited to, his salary and Zubimendi’s likely arrival.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Jorginho (33, 2025)
Marcotti: Like Partey, he’s on a big wage. He contributed in the three seasons he was there, but he’s ready to move on, possibly to Brazil.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Declan Rice (26, 2028 with club option for additional year)
Ogden: The £105m fee that took him from West Ham now looks very cheap and it’s a reminder to the Arsenal board that ambition in the transfer market can be rewarded handsomely.
Marcotti: Spending £105m is never “very cheap” in my book. But sure, in his first two seasons he has lived up to his fee and salary.
Verdict: Keep
Mikel Merino (28, 2028)
Marcotti: They paid €32m in fees to acquire his contract in the summer and at his age, you can’t move him on. Obviously he found a role for himself as an emergency center-forward, but that’s not a long-term plan.
I do wonder whether his playing time is going to be limited next season since you’ll want to get Ethan Nwaneri minutes in midfield and, possibly, Kai Havertz too if they do sign a starting center-forward.
Verdict: Keep
Martin Odegaard (26, 2028)
Ogden: No rush for a new deal with three years to run on his existing contract, but Odegaard needs to step up again next season and become a guy that makes a difference in the biggest games.
Verdict: Keep
Albert Sambi Lokonga (25, 2026)
Marcotti: He’s been OK on a bad Sevilla team. Even if Zubimendi comes, you still need a back up defensive midfielder. Sevilla have a €12m option to buy, but I don’t think they’ll exercise it. I’d be tempted to keep him also because with a year left on his deal, there’s no point sending him on loan.
Ogden: He’s been on loan for two seasons already, it’s time to move on. Maybe you get €8m in fees or something.
Verdict: Split between keep, and move on
Fabio Vieira (24, 2027, on loan at Porto)
Ogden: They wasted a lot of money on him. I don’t know who’s going to take him, but he’s a Jorge Mendes player so I’m sure he can find a place on loan.
Marcotti: His residual amortization is still €14m on Arsenal’s books and I don’t think you’ll get that back, especially since he hasn’t done great and Porto have had a really poor season. If you can get a high enough fee, take it — otherwise send him on loan again and hope for the best.
Verdict: Split between move on, and loan out
Forwards
Gabriel Martinelli (23 years old, contract expires in 2027 with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He has plateaued a bit, but he’s also been injured. Still, there’s no need to extend his deal.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend
Leandro Trossard (30, 2026)
Ogden: He’s reliable. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to keep him, and maybe he leaves as a free agent in the summer.
Marcotti: I think he’s a very useful, versatile forward. If he’s happy to take a one year extension, sign him up.
Verdict: Split between keep/do not extend, and keep/extend
Bukayo Saka (23, 2027)
Ogden: You have to secure him to a longer deal. He loves the club and he’s been great, but you have to think of a four-year rolling contract or something like that because if you don’t and for some reason they do poorly next season, a World Cup year as well, then it could get difficult.
If Arsenal are as ambitious as they claim to be they have to tie him down to a big, long-term contract. He’s their best player and will want to win the biggest trophies somewhere else if Arsenal don’t match his ambition.
Marcotti: Obviously you want to keep him around for a long-time, I’d just be a little cautious with it. He’s already earning in excess of £10m a year which is a lot for someone his age. If you give him a megadeal through say, 2030 then, if he were his agent, I’d want to get Mo Salah type money, closer to twice that. And I could make a strong case for it.
Ultimately he’s the face of the club and what will keep him at Arsenal isn’t just money, but a side capable of winning and competing. You have to get the balance right.
Verdict: Keep and extend
Ethan Nwaneri (18, 2026)
Marcotti: He’s a tremendous prospect, so obviously you extend him, but if I were him or his agent, I’d want to have a serious conversation about how Arteta sees his future.
He played on the right wing, while Saka was out, but obviously that path is blocked. If the future is in midfield, I have Odegaard, Rice, Merino and possibly Kai Havertz there too, if they sign a big name striker. It’s great having a big long-term deal, but what’s my pathway?
Ogden: Well, if you’re that age and you think you’re that good you have to believe you can dislodge one of those players. It happened with the class of ’92 at Manchester United. But at 18 he’s not there yet. Everybody needs to be patient with him.
Verdict: Keep and extend
1:37
Where does Ethan Nwaneri fit into this Arsenal side?
Gab Marcotti and Mark Ogden discuss what pathway Ethan Nwaneri should take to nail down a starting spot in Mikel Arteta’s squad.
Raheem STERLING (30, 2027, on loan from Chelsea)
Marcotti: He was always going to be a Band-Aid, and it simply didn’t work out for him even in that role.
Verdict: End loan as scheduled
Kai Havertz (25, 2028)
Ogden: I’d sell him to help fund the signing of Alexander Isak or another top center-forward, but you wouldn’t find a buyer so you’re stuck with him. Good player, but in modern football, which top club would take Havertz?
I know you love Havertz, Gab, but sometimes a ruthless exit can trigger a positive change.
Marcotti: I still don’t get the Havertz hate and this obsession with labels. Nine goals from open play in the Premier League in the Premier League. Just seven center-forwards scored more than he did from open play and all of them did it in more minutes. He’s not the problem folks make him out to be.
That said, I tend to agree: he’s difficult to shift, given his wages and his residual transfer value, which is close to £40m, which means he stays.
Verdict: Split between keep, and move on
Gabriel Jesus (28, 2027)
Ogden: Ideally you’d look to shift him, but that’s hard to do given he suffered a bad injury and given his wages. The teams who can afford his salary don’t need him and the teams who could use him can’t afford his wages. You’d need to get £12m to £15m in transfer fees, and that’s hard to do.
Marcotti: I agree it’s time to move on, you have better alternatives wide and if you sign another forward you have better options there too. Maybe you can work out some sort of loan with an option to buy in January, when he’ll have a year left.
Verdict: Split between move on, and loan out
Marquinhos (22, 2027, on loan at Cruzeiro)
Marcotti: He joined in 2022 and has played just one minute of Premier League football before a string of mostly unsuccessful loan spells. It’s pretty evident he’s headed that way again.
Verdict: Loan out
Reiss Nelson, (24, 2027, on loan at Fulham)
Ogden: He’s been injured, so he’ll have to prove his fitness before he can go on loan again, but that’s what makes sense for him.
Verdict: Loan out
Overall verdict
It’s pretty obvious that they were short-handed up front at the start of the season, and things got worse when first Gabriel Jesus and then Havertz succumbed to injury. Not picking up a striker, even as a short-term option, in January possibly cost them their shot at the league title.
Mark and Gab both agree that this ought to be a priority; where they disagree is on the profile.
Mark would like them to pursue a top-shelf center-forward, Alexander Isak might be too difficult, but if not him someone like Viktor Gyökeres or Benjamin Sesko. Gab disagrees (unless they can shift Havertz for big money, which he doesn’t believe will happen) because the fee involved, plus the cost of bringing in Zubimendi (or a comparable central midfielder, which they also need) would eat up most of the budget and make extending the likes of Saliba, Lewis-Skelly, Nwaneri and Saka that much more difficult.
Gab would prefer they bring in a cheaper forward, one who is OK to come off the bench and offers a different profile to Havertz — someone like Jorgen Strand Larsen or Jean-Phillpe Mateta, for example. Maybe even Ollie Watkins, though he’d be more expensive. And, of course, if Ipswich go down, they’ll be in the hunt for Liam Delap and his £30m release clause.
We expect them to sign Zubimendi in midfield and, if they don’t, spend a comparable amount on another defensive midfielder. How much they recoup from player departures is tough to tell, it could be as much as £50m if they manage to shift Kiwior as well (as Gab would like to see). They will need to find a reserve defensive midfielder as well and, as Gab says, Lokonga is a cheap and cheerful in-house solution.
Longer-term, a lot will depend on the fitness and durability of Calafiori and Timber as well as the development of Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri. Here, Arsenal are somewhat penalized by the fact that they’re a relatively young team, because pathways for young talent are important and in Nwaneri’s case, the incumbent, Odegaard is still just 26.
Arsenal are poised for a great leap forward if they make the right calls. It’s going to be a big summer for Berta and Arteta.
This post was originally published on this site