Manchester United will head into the summer off the back of their worst league campaign in more than three decades — since 1989-90. Minority owner Jim Ratcliffe has made a lot of noise with his hiring of a new chief executive (Omar Berrada) and technical director (Jason Wilcox), cuts to what he considers a “bloated” non-playing staff and unveiled what a proposed new stadium would look like, but he has hardly won hearts and minds among the fans. (The even more unpopular Glazer family is still lurking in the background as majority owners.)
Replacing Erik ten Hag with Ruben Amorim in November has at least given supporters the sense that there is a plan, though results have largely been disappointing. Amorim’s tactical system, the 3-4-2-1, is proving to be a slow burn, partly because most of the squad is unsuited to it, and because it’s a major departure from Ten Hag’s style (or, really, that of almost any other manager.)
Still, it feels as if there’s a plan. It might not be the right plan, but the sense of drift has somewhat gone away, and Ratcliffe isn’t a Glazer, which means most United fans are giving him the benefit of the doubt — for now, anyway.
So much depends on whether United can win the Europa League. They’re through to the semifinals, with the first leg at Athletic Club on Thursday. Winning the Europa League would mean qualifying for the Champions League, and that, in turn, could mean anywhere from £60 million to £120m in additional revenue. Not all of that would go straight into the transfer kitty, of course. That many United players have contracts with automatic 25% pay cuts if they fail to qualify for the Champions League would help if they fail, but being in the Champions League would be a tremendous boost in terms of prize money, signing more lucrative sponsorships and attracting more top players to Old Trafford.
We expect the club to have budgeted around £80m in net spend, which could grow to £130m or more if United qualify for the Champions League. They will likely save between £12m and £15m in the wages of players leaving the club, and the good news is there are very few upcoming extensions to worry about (possibly a reflection of how much United have underachieved.)
Editor’s note: This is the second in this year’s series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. Find the article on Arsenal right here.
KEEP/DUMP GROUND RULES
Remember: This is our assessment of what we think the club should do, player for player, with the squad at its disposal. It’s not what we think the club will actually do, though sometimes the two will align. That said, we take into account what we know of the club, coaching staff and player preferences, as well as its financial situation and any other factor that we think will impact personnel moves.
Where we disagree, or where we think our rationale is worth explaining, we’ve noted below.
Goalkeepers
André Onana (29 years old, contract expires in 2028, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He was signed by Ten Hag and he’s an accident waiting to happen. You have to shift him if you can, though it’s not going to be easy.
Marcotti: He hasn’t had a good year, I’ll grant you, but the club has a ton of other priorities and there’s not a market for him among clubs that can afford the £30m-plus that’s left on his amortization.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep
Altay Bayindir (27, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He makes mistakes when he comes in. He was always a low-budget short-term fix, and he hasn’t worked out. Move on.
Marcotti: He’s only two years younger than Onana, so unless you think he’s your keeper of the future, there’s no point keeping him and hoping he becomes reliable. He wasn’t a very expensive signing, so I think if you get any offer over £4m, let him go.
Verdict: Move on
Tom Heaton (39, 2025)
Ogden: He has had his time, no sense in keeping him around, you can find another old guy to be the No. 3 keeper if that’s what you want.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Defenders
Leny Yoro (19 years old, contract expires in 2029, with club option for additional year)
Verdict: Keep
Lisandro Martínez (27, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: With his injuries there are lots of question marks. I’d hold off on extending him until he shows he can stay fit and contribute in this system.
Verdict: Keep, do not extend his contract
Matthijs de Ligt (25, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He has done OK, there’s nothing you need to do … also because there’s nothing you can do. You’re stuck with him. I don’t see him as a long-term Amorim player because he is limited on the ball, but he has played his part in tough times this season.
Verdict: Keep
Harry Maguire (32, 2026)
Marcotti: They made their decision when they gave him a year extension. Amorim obviously rates him enough and, at that age, with those wages, he’s not going anywhere.
Ogden: He’s showing himself to be the most convincing center-forward on United’s books right now, so he’s worth his new contract for that alone.
Verdict: Keep
Victor Lindelöf (30, 2025)
Ogden: It’s amazing he survived this long at Manchester United. Never good enough — too slow, can’t head the ball, dreadful concentration and defensive instincts, but he has had eight years on the payroll.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Ayden Heaven (18, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Verdict: Keep
Jonny Evans (37, 2025)
Verdict: Release
Patrick Dorgu (20, 2030, with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: He’s extremely fast and extremely raw. Let’s see how he can grow under Amorim.
Ogden: There’s a long list of guys who stayed at United a long time and didn’t get any better.
Verdict: Keep
Luke Shaw (29, 2027)
Ogden: United have accepted they will never get 40 games a season out of him, but 10 would be nice. No way they can find a club to take him with such a poor fitness record.
Verdict: Keep
Harry Amass (18, 2027)
Ogden: Amorim has taken a while to give him a chance, so he might not be totally convinced. But with Dorgu so raw and Shaw rarely fit, Amass could play fairly regularly next season if he kicks on.
Marcotti: Give him six months to see what Amorim thinks. If he contributes, you have to start thinking new contract by Christmas.
Verdict: Keep
Diogo Dalot (26, 2028, with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: I think this system suits him.
Ogden: I disagree. In many ways, Dalot epitomizes United’s decline. Defensively, he is always found wanting, and his awareness when attacking is woeful, but because he is all-energy and because United have four or five bigger problems, he will survive. Just watch how often he is caught upfield when he should be tracking back.
Verdict: Keep
Noussair Mazraoui (27, 2028, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He has done well and he’s versatile. Can play either wing-back role or be the third central defender.
Verdict: Keep
Tyrell Malacia (25, 2026, on loan at PSV Eindhoven)
Ogden: If he’s fit, you can get maybe a £4m transfer fee for him.
Verdict: Move on
Midfielders
Manuel Ugarte (24, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Verdict: Keep
Casemiro (33, 2026, with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: It would be better for him — and for United — if he moved on, but his salary makes it very hard for him to leave, and with a year left on his deal, it’s hard to loan him too. Maybe you can transfer him on the idea that regular playing time somewhere else could get him back in the Brazil squad ahead of next summer’s World Cup.
Ogden: Despite the obvious need to get Casemiro’s huge salary off the wage bill, he has made a difference in recent weeks, especially in the Europa League. If United miss out on Europe next season and have only a domestic fixture list, he just might be able to handle the workload and play a role. But ideally, United will move him on and save £300,000 per week in wages.
Verdict: Move on
Toby Collyer (21, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He’s an extra body in midfield, and someone you hope can kick on. You have to give him the opportunity to fail or to succeed.
Verdict: Keep
Kobbie Mainoo (19, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: I don’t know where he fits in Amorim’s system; he’s not mobile enough to play central midfield in the 3-4-2-1 formation, but let’s see how he develops. He’s obviously a talent, but he’s a square peg in a round hole in Amorim’s team.
Marcotti: This is a tricky one. I agree he’s not ideal to play in the two in front of the back four, and you’ll hopefully add another top midfielder, maybe two, this summer. Perhaps you work on him to develop into one of the 10s? But then you have Amad and Bruno Fernandes in front of him. You can get away with not extending him now, but you’ll have a big decision to make next summer.
Verdict: Keep
Christian Eriksen (33, 2025)
Ogden: He has given United three years of decent service. If only they could have had a 25-year-old Christian Eriksen in their team — what a difference he would have made.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Bruno Fernandes (30, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: It’s funny, because he’s not a great fit to play as one of the attacking midfielders, and he’s certainly not a great fit as one of the central midfielders in front of the back three. And yet he has filled both roles and has been the club’s best and most productive player by a mile. It’s not ideal, but ultimately you’re not going to move him on and you’re much better with him on the pitch.
Ogden: He has carried United this season, as a terrible campaign would have been even worse without him. You could even make an argument for Bruno as Footballer of the Year when you consider the players he has had to perform alongside.
Verdict: Keep
Mason Mount (26, 2028, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: Amorim likes him, obviously he needs to stay fit. He’s technically adept. I’m not sure where he plays though.
Marcotti: It’s a bit of a moot point in the sense that with his injury record and the fact that he still has £33m unamortized value on their books, it’s highly unlikely that United can shift him anyway. Let Amorim do his job and see if he can fit him in.
Verdict: Keep
Forwards
Alejandro Garnacho (20 years old, contract expires in 2028)
Ogden: He’s not savvy enough to be a No. 10, he’s really only a winger and they don’t play with wingers. You can get as much as £50m in a transfer fee, and it would be pure profit in his case as he came through the academy. I just don’t see him developing into a player who is worth keeping.
Marcotti: I agree he’s not a fit. I thought maybe he could adapt to the wing-back role, but I don’t think that will happen. He’s an obvious one to move on because he’s home-grown and because his wages are low. You can get a lot of money back.
Verdict: Move on
Amad (22, 2030, with club option for additional year)
Verdict: Keep
Rasmus Højlund (22, 2028, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He’s just not good enough. Maybe someone in Germany or Italy will take him, but he’s the worst striker I’ve ever seen at United. He runs in straight lines, has no goal instinct and offers nothing. Still, it’s not his fault that United paid such a ridiculously inflated fee for him (an initial £64m to Atalanta) to bring him in from Serie A.
Marcotti: You’d need to get a minimum of £40m back in transfer fees to not lose money on this deal, and that’s a big ask. I understand he’s not cutting it, so I think it makes more sense to loan him out and see if he gets traction somewhere else.
Verdict: Split between move and loan out
Joshua Zirkzee (23, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He’s too slow, he doesn’t hold the ball up and he has no physicality. Keeping him is a reward for failure, because I don’t think he’d start for any other Premier League team outside the bottom three.
Marcotti: I agree he’s an unorthodox player and has struggled, but you don’t give up on him after just a year — given his fee (£36.5m to Bologna) and contract length, he’s very difficult to shift anyway. Keep him around as a backup center-forward or maybe see if he can develop into an alternative as a No. 10. You can only change so many guys in one go.
Verdict: Split between move, and keep but look to loan out
Chido Obi (17, 2029)
Ogden: Don’t just keep him, but give him minutes. United need depth.
Verdict: Keep
Marcus Rashford (28, 2028, on loan at Aston Villa)
Ogden: United will have to subsidize his exit one way or the other. Villa have an option to make his move permanent for £40m, but I don’t think he has done enough to convince them yet. And, in any case, they have all the leverage. They can set the price since obviously United don’t want him back. You have to move him on, the question is how much it’s going to cost you.
Marcotti: United are paying a chunk of his wages at Villa, and with three years left on his deal, if he does move, it’s safe to say they’ll need to discount the transfer fee accordingly. I’d see if Amorim can somehow rebuild the relationship and turn him into a useful player. If not, the best option might actually be to renew his loan with Villa — assuming they want him — just to save on his wages.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep but look to loan out
1:08
Could Marcus Rashford play for Man United again?
Gab Marcotti and Mark Ogden discuss the possibility of Marcus Rashford returning to Old Trafford.
Antony (25, 2027, on loan at Real Betis)
Ogden: He has done very well at Betis, and they probably want to make his move permanent, but United will still make a loss because he has £32m in amortization left and Betis obviously aren’t going to pay a significant fee. His wages are surprisingly low, though, at around £70,000 a week, so he’d be easier to shift than others.
Marcotti: I agree, so maybe it’s better to see if you can do a loan with an obligation to make the move permanent at, say, £20m next year just so you don’t take a loss. But yes, obviously you move on. He doesn’t fit this system.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep but look to loan out
Jadon Sancho (25, 2026, with club option for additional year, on loan at Chelsea)
Marcotti: Chelsea have an obligation to make the loan permanent if they finish in the top 14, which they will. Otherwise there’s a clause of £5m to send him back. I think Chelsea will want to keep him — he’s got a different profile, and frankly better than their other wingers — but it’s just a question of what personal terms they can agree to.
Ogden: The fee Chelsea would pay is reportedly between £20m and £25m, but I think they will haggle to pay a little less. Either way, you still let him go.
Verdict: Move on
Overall verdict
The good news is that Man United are in a position where they can spend a lot of money this summer, despite Ratcliffe’s doom-and-gloom pronouncements about cost cutting. Moving Garnacho, Sancho and Bayindir should be relatively straightforward and should net them in the £70m-90m range — that number goes up further if you can shift one or more of Casemiro, Rashford, Zirkzee, Højlund or Antony, but as we said, none of them will be easy to transfer on a permanent basis.
And, of course, if they win the Europa League, you can probably add another £40m-60m to the transfer budget via future Champions League revenue. Add it to our original net spend estimate of £80m-100m and — who knows? — they could theoretically have as much as £300m to spend.
Their biggest priority has to be up front. Man United are one of many clubs linked to Liam Delap of Ipswich Town, and with his £30m release clause, that would obviously make sense. But we think they probably need to get two central strikers — not just one, since Højlund will likely leave, whether on a permanent transfer or, more likely, on loan. We think you need to be open to the possibilities: maybe it’s a top striker and an understudy, or maybe it’s two guys who can compete. Either way, there has to be a significant upgrade.
Assuming Fernandes and Amad are the starters in the No. 10 position, Gab thinks they could use another option off the bench beyond Zirkzee and Mount if they qualify for the Champions League.
The other major area in need of upgrade is central midfield. You want a player with legs, power and quality — ideally one with experience playing in a two, who can make Ugarte and/or Mainoo better. We’d be comfortable spending at least £50m in that role. And again, if United do get European football next season, they’ll need an understudy as well, beyond Collyer.
The wing-back options are nothing to get excited about, but you have plenty of competent cover and alternatives in Dalot, Mazraoui, Dorgu and Amass (Shaw too, when fit). That’s not a priority. We think they’re OK at center-back, too, though that will depend on Martinez’s fitness. Yoro, De Ligt and Martinez — with Maguire and Heaven as backups, and possibly Mazaroui too — might not be an elite unit, but it’s one that can grow together. If there’s a promising youngster or low-cost veteran with experience in this system who can be signed for the right price, maybe you add somebody for depth.
That leaves goalkeeper. We disagree on moving on from Onana, but we’d like to see United upgrade on Bayindir and replace Heaton, which you can do with an in-house youngster or a veteran free agent who can be acquired at low cost. Mark and Gab disagree on whether you spend significant money to replace Onana (and move him to No. 2, at least for now) or whether you bring in a younger keeper who can challenge him down the road. This will depend on how much of the budget is spent in central midfield and up front.
You’re not going to revolutionize a team in a single window, but United are in a strong position to make significant, and positive, changes this summer.
This post was originally published on this site