The UFC announced Tuesday that two of the most-anticipated fights of the summer will land on the same card, as men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and former title holder Sean O’Malley will stage a rematch of their UFC 306 showdown and women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Peña puts her belt on the line against former two-time PFL champ Kayla Harrison at UFC 316 on June 7 (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
While there are many questions ahead of the upcoming fight card, two stand out more than the rest. ESPN MMA contributor Jeff Wagenheim breaks down O’Malley’s chances and the rematch and details which title contender faces the most pressure. And ESPN betting analyst Ian Parker provides early best bets on both fights.
Should we expect a O’Malley-Dvalishvili rematch to go any differently than the first fight?
The first fight was not so competitive. Dvalishvili seized control right from the start with two takedowns in the first round and another in the second, beating up and wearing out O’Malley each time the fight went to the canvas. “Suga Sean” was playing catch-up the rest of the way — but cautiously. To avoid being put on his back again, O’Malley fought defensively and barely unleashed his dangerous striking. He cannot fight like that again if he hopes to win back the title.
O’Malley rose to the top of the bantamweight division on the strength of tenacious, creative and unrelenting striking. In his one previous UFC bout that went five rounds, O’Malley besieged Marlon Vera with 358 strikes, landing 232. Against Dvalishvili, he landed 49-of-91. O’Malley attempted more strikes than that in one round against “Chito” and nearly matched that output in two other rounds. Where was that guy?
Dvalishvili is the UFC’s all-time leader in takedowns with 92. But when he gets opponents to the canvas, they tend to get back up. O’Malley has to plan on that. Dvalishvili landed six takedowns against him and amassed 10 minutes, 3 seconds of control time in their first fight. But that means O’Malley was not being controlled for more than half the fight. This time, O’Malley has to take advantage of his standup time by letting his hands go.
Of course, Dvalishvili’s greatest weapon is not his takedown prowess — his success rate is a pedestrian 35% — but rather his relentless pursuit of takedowns, which saps the energy and fighting spirit out of an opponent. He made O’Malley defend 15 attempts, and that was a low output for him. Dvalishvili attempted 30 takedowns against Umar Nurmagomedov in January and 49 (not a typo) against Petr Yan two years ago. If O’Malley trains with that in mind, he can develop a strategy to conserve energy for offensive opportunities on his feet. He has to fight a “Suga Sean” fight.
Which fighter vying for a championship belt at UFC 316 has the most to prove?
Everyone challenging for a title or defending one has something to prove, obviously, but Harrison has her entire reputation on the line. She talked a big game during her time in the PFL, proclaiming herself “the queen of women’s MMA” in 2022. Now she is in position for a UFC coronation.
Harrison will enter the cage carrying massive expectations. Not only can she become a champion, she can stake her place as the biggest star in the women’s game. The ESPN BET oddsmakers have yet to weigh in, but Harrison is likely to be a massive betting favorite over Peña, a rarity for a title challenger.
What has Harrison done to warrant such confidence? She mauled all of her PFL competition other than Larissa Pacheco, then arrived in the UFC amid much fanfare. Her Octagon debut a year ago was an impressive submission of a big-name former champion, although Holly Holm was 42 years old at the time and the fight with Harrison was her UFC swan song. Harrison then beat Ketlen Vieira by decision in October, but the Brazilian was coming off 15 months of inactivity. Those results leave more work to be done.
Harrison’s other opponent is the scale. After previously fighting mostly at 155 pounds, she came to the UFC to compete in a division that is 20 pounds lighter. She has made weight for both of her dates in the Octagon, but that’s a massive cut. Can she continue to do that and compete at her best?
Weigh-in aside, this fight will be Harrison’s truest UFC test. Peña is a two-time champ who owns a win over the greatest fighter in the history of women’s MMA, Amanda Nunes. That is a name you can expect to come out of Harrison’s mouth if she captures the belt. She has long wanted to fight her longtime training partner, and if she beats Peña impressively enough to entice Nunes out of retirement, what a big victory that would be.
Parker’s early bets for UFC 316 title fights
Dvalishvili to win by decision. After seeing what Dvalishvili just did to Nurmagomedov at UFC 311 in January, it’s hard to picture this rematch going any other way. Unless O’Malley is able to tag Dvalishvili early in the fight and prevent him from recovering, I expect the champion to do what he does best: outpace and outwrestle his opponent the entire fight.
Harrison to win inside the distance. There is only one way to bet this fight: take Harrison to win inside the distance. Or, if we get lucky, win under 4.5 rounds. As resilient as Peña is, Harrison will be too strong for her. Once Harrison is in top position, she will take over and end the fight. Although Peña already pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history over Nunes, that won’t happen here. Harrision will not gas out. She is an intelligent fighter who will have no issue dominating Peña.
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