Former interim featherweight title challenger Josh Emmett will end a 15-month layoff when he takes on rising contender Lerone Murphy in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).
Emmett, who has not fought since UFC 296 in December 2023, produced one of the most devastating finishes you’ll ever see in his last Octagon appearance, beating Bryce Mitchell by first-round knockout. Before that win, Emmett was on a two-fight losing streak. Murphy has yet to suffer a loss in his professional career, and enters the fight having won seven consecutive fights. He has won each of his past three fights by unanimous decision. Both fighters are unranked by ESPN.
On Thursday, the PFL will host its first event of 2025, as the welterweights and featherweights debut the new format for the promotion’s divisional tournaments.
In the main event, former Bellator welterweight champion Jason Jackson takes on Andrey Koreshkov. Jackson will be making his second PFL appearance. He beat Ray Cooper III in an exhibition fight on last year’s PFL Champions vs. Bellator Champions card. Koreshkov is 1-1 in the PFL. Most recently, he beat Goiti Yamauchi by unanimous decision during the 2024 PFL regular season.
Andreas Hale spoke to veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card, plus his best bets for Thursday’s PFL fight card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
0:55
Josh Emmett submits contender for KO of the year
Josh Emmett sends Bryce Mitchell to the mat with a walk-off punch in Round 1 of their bout.
Din Thomas, veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst
How Emmett wins: Emmett has fight-altering power. That was evident in his fights against Mitchell, Ricardo Lamas and Michael Johnson. He really did a number on those guys. A few things did alarm me, though. The first is that he is 40 years old. He’s had some time off for recovery from injury, but his people told me that he is feeling better than ever. Emmett’s team said he will be competing with more physicality than he has in a long time, but I have a hard time believing that. Maybe he’s trying to convince himself. Either way, he has to land that big punch because, if he does, it’s game over.
How Murphy wins: Murphy sold me with his performance against Edson Barboza. He has great tools at his disposal and he knows when to use them. He moves well, switches stances and understands how to get out of tough situations. His speed and versatility should allow him to run laps around Emmett. He will fight smart but can be aggressive when necessary. Murphy can put on a clinic against Emmett if he puts all of his tools to use.
X factor: The size of the Octagon. The smaller Octagon at the UFC Apex favors Emmett because it will limit Murphy’s movement. He may be able to corner Murphy and force him to trade punches, which is exactly what Emmett wants.
Prediction: Murphy to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Emmett to win (+260). Emmett is a tough litmus test for anyone trying to get to the top of the featherweight division. Although he is a large underdog, I am taking Emmett here. Emmett has five-round experience and has faced top-level competition. He also has fantastic takedown defense and devastating knockout power. Murphy will have to outstrike and outwrestle Emmett while avoiding getting knocked out over 25 minutes. That’s a big ask, especially after getting dropped by Dan Ige in his last fight.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the UFC card
0:44
Joanderson Brito stuns Andre Fili in first round
Joanderson Brito finishes Andre Fili in the first round with an incredible combo.
Featherweight: Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
Fight does not go the distance. This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts. To me, this fight ends only one of two ways: either Sabatini gets the submission or Brito gets the knockout. And it’s more likely that Brito gets it done here. We have seen Brito’s opponents shoot for a lazy takedown attempt after getting rocked, then get submitted or knocked out. While I expect that to happen here, if Sabatini can win in a scramble, he is a dangerous submission threat.
Women’s flyweight: Diana Belbita vs. Dione Barbosa
Barbosa to win inside the distance. Although she lost a decision to Miranda Maverick in her second fight in the UFC, Barbosa still performed well and showed she belongs in the promotion. She is currently the biggest favorite on the card but only slightly favored to win inside the distance, and that’s the outcome I’m leaning toward. Two out of Belbita’s five losses have come via submission, and considering Barbosa has earned three of her seven wins by submission, we’ll likely see No. 4 here. This should be a showcase fight for Barbosa.
Parker’s best bets for PFL First Round: Welterweights & Featherweights
Welterweight: Jason Jackson vs. Andrey Koreshkov
Jackson to win (-230). Koreshkov has proved to be a devastating striker with fight-ending kicks. To pull off the upset, he needs to keep this fight standing and strike from distance, but I don’t see that happening. Jackson can match Koreshkov on the feet, but the biggest disparity is the grappling and wrestling, where Jackson will have the advantage. Look for Jackson to use his striking to close the distance on Koreshkov and eventually take the fight to the ground. I expect Jackson to outwrestle Koreshkov for the better part of the fight and get the win.
Featherweight: Jeremy Kennedy vs. Movlid Khaybulaev
Khaybulaev to win by submission or decision. Khaybulaev returns to the PFL hoping to become a two-time champion. He is a tough matchup for Kennedy, the biggest underdog on the card, because Khaybulaev is undefeated and has shown no weaknesses in his game. Unless Kennedy catches him with a flash knockout, this will be a dominant performance from Khaybulaev. Look for Khaybulaev to close the distance and smother Kennedy for the better part of three rounds.
Featherweight: Nathan Kelly vs. Tae Kyun Kim
Kelly to win (+105). After his 11-fight winning streak came to a halt in his last fight, Kelly could bounce back with a win over Kim. Although Kelly is a slight underdog and is coming off a loss, I think he should be favored. Kelly has fought better competition, and if the fight hits the floor, Kelly is the better ground grappler.
This post was originally published on this site