Men’s bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen looks to bounce back from his first loss since 2023 when he takes on former men’s flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event at UFC Fight Night in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday night (10 ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Sandhagen, ESPN’s No. 5-ranked bantamweight, enters the fight following a unanimous decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov at a UFC Fight Night last August. Before dropping that fight, he was riding a three-fight win streak that included victories over Song Yadong and Marlon “Chito” Vera. Figueiredo, ranked No. 6, is also coming off a loss. Petr Yan beat him by unanimous decision at a UFC Fight Night last November.
The first round of the PFL World Tournament concludes on Friday, as the heavyweights and light heavyweights will compete at Universal Studios in Orlando, Florida (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN+) to determine who advances to the semifinals. Former PFL light heavyweight champion Rob Wilkinson takes on former Bellator light heavyweight titleholder Phil Davis in the main event.
Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC men’s bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on both cards.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men’s bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
TJ Dillashaw, former UFC men’s bantamweight champion
How Sandhagen wins: I love Sandhagen, not only as an athlete but as a human. I had to fight him once, but we trained together years before that. He needs to keep this fight standing, using his creativity and angles. His big knees up the middle will be huge, given how much shorter Figureiredo is. He can’t stand in front of Figueiredo and allow him to shoot takedowns. Sandhagen has a reach advantage, so don’t overcommit and hit those pop shots, flashy feints, just keep it all unpredictable. Sandhagen’s striking is so slick. He does a great job of switching stances and keeping his back off the cage.
How Figueiredo wins: Safely close the distance and stay away from Sandhagen’s knees. Figueiredo has to set up his punches; he can’t just shoot takedowns. He needs to put his hands on Cory first and make him believe in his power, because Figueiredo has power, even moving up in weight. Get Sandhagen to respect his power and then take him down. He needs to get the fight to the ground, for multiple reasons. I don’t think he can keep up with Sandhagen’s pace on the feet. But once Figueredo gets him down, his jiu-jitsu is second to none. He has great control and submissions, and that’s a weakness that Cory has shown in previous fights.
X factor: For Sandhagen, it’s his cardio and fight IQ. He works with Trevor Wittman now, and I’m sure they’ve come up with a great game plan. For Figueiredo, it’s his jiu-jitsu. Cody Garbrandt is very hard to take down and keep down — he’s like a cat, he gets back up so quickly — and Figueiredo managed to take him down and submit him.
Prediction: I lean Sandhagen here because of the cardio and the mindset. He is unbeatable when he’s on top of his game, and I think he believes in himself right now.
Parker’s betting analysis
Odds accurate as of May 1. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Sandhagen to win (-550); over 2.5 rounds. It feels like whoever loses this fight has seen their last opportunity to chase a UFC championship. Sandhagen is sitting as a near 5-to-1 favorite, and it makes sense. Outside of a fluke KO strike from Figueiredo, Sandhagen is better everywhere and knows how to stay out of trouble. Look for Sandhagen to utilize his volume striking and dictate the pace to get the win. If he is to finish Figueredo, I say it’ll come in Rounds 4 or 5. However, to get the line down, let’s take Sandhagen to win and over 2.5 rounds, making those bets the anchors of our parlay.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder
Nickal to win (-340). Nickal asked for a step up in competition, and he’s getting just that. De Ridder is coming off back-to-back submission wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, but I think the submission and win streaks come to an end here. As good as de Ridder has been in his two UFC fights and in his years with One Championship, where he was a two-division champ, there is a reason why Nickal is being treated as “that guy.” Nickal may not have the technical striking of de Ridder, but he’s technical enough to keep his opponent honest and he probably has the edge in speed and power. On top of that, Nickal’s world-class wrestling — he was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion — will be too strong for de Ridder, and Nickal is defensively sound in the jiu-jitsu department, so I don’t see him getting submitted. This feels like a Nickal decision victory, but to play it safe, let’s take him to win on the moneyline and add him to our parlay.
Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Ponzinibbio to win (-115). This should be a fun standup battle, with two UFC veterans putting on a show for the fans. I am surprised at the betting line, as I thought Ponzinibbio would be a bigger favorite, but at near coin-flip odds, I like this spot. Ponzinibbio is better everywhere the fight can go, and with Rodriguez having lost three of his past four and looking a bit slow in his last fight, I think Ponzinibbio adds another KO/TKO to his resume.
Best bets for the PFL First Round: Heavyweights and light heavyweights
Light heavyweight: Phil Davis vs. Rob Wilkinson
Wilkinson to win (-150). Davis will make his PFL debut against the 2022 season winner. The odds are closer than I expected, with Wilkinson being a near a -150 favorite. I would have put him at -200, because if he can defend the takedown attempts of the 2008 NCAA wrestling champ and keep the fight standing, the striking is so heavily in Wilkinson’s favor that I believe this fight won’t be overly competitive. Wilkinson has great takedown defense, and I don’t think he will have an issue with Davis, whose striking doesn’t present anything Wilkinson hasn’t seen before.
Heavyweight: Alexandr Romanov vs. Tim Johnson
Romanov to win by KO/TKO. Romanov will make his PFL debut against a fighter coming off a pair of first-round losses, and I would be shocked if this result were any different. Johnson has a puncher’s chance, but he is likely to be taken down right out of the gate and finished on the ground. With Romanov being a near 6-to-1 favorite, you can either throw him in a parlay or, to get much better odds, take him to win by KO/TKO.
Light heavyweight: Antonio Carlos Jr. vs. Karl Moore
Carlos to win (+115). Coming off a decision loss to Corey Anderson in a fight for the Bellator title last year, Moore looks to bounce back. Moore did well on the feet against Anderson but struggled to stay off his back and defend the wrestling. If he has the same trouble in this fight, Carlos will finish him. Carlos has good enough standup to keep Moore at bay while setting up his takedowns. Once the fight hits the floor, the two-time jiu-jitsu world champion will take over. At plus-money, I am taking Carlos Jr.
Karl Albrektsson vs. Simeon Powell
Powell to win (-210). After suffering his first loss in the 2023 PFL Europe finals, Powell bounced back with a split-decision Bellator win over Rafael Xavier last September. Powell should have his confidence back, which makes him dangerous. He is a smart fighter with tremendous knockout power. With Albrektsson coming off a KO loss and having lost three of his past four, I expect Powell to show out here and land that KO strike we have grown accustomed to seeing.
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