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Gabriele Marcotti, Senior Writer, ESPN FC
Before we head into the final two-week international break of 2024, the European soccer weekend gave us plenty to talk about! For the first time in his coaching career, Pep Guardiola has lost four straight games in all competitions: what does that say about Manchester City? We also got an emphatic Real Madrid bounce-back win, albeit one that feels like a loss given the serious injury suffered by defender Éder Militão.
Plus, there’s plenty to write when it comes to Bayern Munich (who looked better than their 1-0 win over St. Pauli suggests), Liverpool (who won again), Borussia Dortmund (who hurt themselves in defeat to Mainz), Man United (who said goodbye to interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy with a victory) and Roma (who fired their third manager of 2024).
Just like last week, we’ll have a second update/edition with the latest talking points after the Gab & Juls podcast, but for now, it’s Monday, and here is Gab Marcotti reacting to the biggest moments in the world of soccer.
It took him nearly 16 seasons and 940 games, but Pep Guardiola has finally lost four straight games. What does it mean?
As I see it, the four defeats in and of themselves don’t mean that much. Losing to Tottenham was in the League Cup and yes, both teams played a bunch of regular starters, but Erling Haaland traveled and was an unused sub. Bournemouth was a bad defeat and a bad performance. Yes, they lost 4-1 at Sporting, but could easily have scored three in the first half alone. As for Saturday against Brighton? Again, there was potentially a hat-trick for Haaland in the first half, and a collapse at both ends late on: defensive errors at the back and 0.29 second-half xG.
In other words, City weren’t great in any of these four games, but at least two of them could very well have gone the other way because individual superstars can paper over collective cracks. Then, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. That’s why performance matters more than results in assessing a team and their prospects, and the reality is that for much of the year, City have been several notches below the standard they set in years past.
After 11 league games and four Champions League outings last season, they had conceded 11 goals. This year, they’re up to 17. You can’t help but point fingers at the defence, especially since his decision to play with four de facto centerbacks is calculated to give his front men more freedom to operate.
Everybody has heard the Rodri stats and yes, his absence looms very large. But let’s not overstate it either. It’s not as if Rodri goes out and he’s replaced by traffic cones. Mateo Kovacic, Rico Lewis and Ilkay Gündogan are quality footballers: there’s a scheme in which they can do a better job of filling Rodri’s shoes, and Guardiola hasn’t found it yet.
Further up the pitch, injuries have played a part too. Phil Foden, the league’s Player of the Year last season, has started less than half City’s 15 league and Champions League games. Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish, the £100m man, just five; Jérémy Doku, just six. Oskar Bobb, who may not be a superstar, but at least might have eaten up some minutes, has been out all year. And so it feels like the burden falls on the usual shoulders: Bernardo Silva, who is now 30, and Haaland, who has played 96.8% of City’s league and European minutes this season.
The upshot is a City side that, especially recently, has looked more jaded, less sharp and less intense. And one that has endured second-half collapses.
Haaland himself is another issue. He’s scoring a goal a game this season and nobody is going to argue with that. But we’re also accustomed to him overachieving his xG, because that’s what superstars do, only this year, he’s just under that.
More broadly, it feels like the end of a cycle. Sporting Director Txiki Begiristain is leaving in June. Until he signs a new deal — and so far, he hasn’t wanted to commit — so too will Guardiola. There’s the 115 charges hanging over the club: we don’t know how they’ll go, but the worst case scenario (from a City perspective) is terrifying. The summer transfer window brought Savinho (from another City Football Group club) and the return of Gundogan (for one year, on a free, at 34): hardly the stuff of long-term planning, which, given the circumstances, is understandable.
All this can engender a sense of drift, and it’s exactly what Guardiola needs to stave off because the story of City’s 2024-25 season has yet to be written. City are second in the Premier League. They’re two points out of the top eight in the Champions League and, once they’re in the knockouts, nobody will want to face them. After the break, it’s Tottenham at home and, especially, Liverpool away on Dec. 1. That’s when you can reboot your season.
Éder Militão’s injury overshadows Real Madrid‘s bounce-back win
Real Madrid took out all their frustration following defeats in the Clasico to Barcelona and the Champions League to Milan with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Osasuna.
Vinicius Jr. brought his seasonal goal total to 12 and reminded you why he’s always worth having around, despite what the pressing/analytics nerds say. Jude Bellingham also scored and Madridristas will hope it jump-starts his season. It’s easy to be critical of the strutting, and he hasn’t been near last season’s level. It’s also worth reminding ourselves that he only turned 21 in the summer and unlike last year, when he played in the hole with the team revolving around him, this year he’s being shuffled around the pitch in Carlo Ancelotti’s search of balance.
All of this, however, is overshadowed by Éder Militão’s ACL injury, coming just seven months after his return from the previous one. There’s an individual dimension to this — first and foremost, you feel for the guy — and there’s a real-world impact on the team too. With Rodrigo and Lucas Vázquez suffering lesser injuries (plus Dani Carvajal and David Alaba already sidelined), Ancelotti ended the game with a back four of Fede Valverde, Antonio Rüdiger, Raúl Asencio and Fran García. Raul who? Yeah, this guy.
It’s evident Real Madrid need to go back into the transfer market in January. Going into the season with Rudiger and Eder Militao as the only fit senior central defenders was already a stretch. (Alaba is expected to return later this month, but who knows what condition he’ll be in.) That part is non-negotiable, because the only other options here are the aforementioned Asencio and Jesús Vallejo, who has started five games in four years and feels like a guy counting down the days to free agency. They’ll also need cover at right-back and a passer in midfield, which is why I still like my Joshua Kimmich idea, but obviously that’s subordinate to live bodies on the pitch.
Oh, and for those keeping score at home, yes, Thibaut Courtois and Aurélien Tchouaméni are also injured (though hopefully they’ll be back after the break or shortly thereafter).
STILL TO COME: Gab’s musings on Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal and the late-Sunday draw drama between Inter Milan and Napoli…
Quick hits
Jamal Musiala shines as Bayern hardly break a sweat in St. Pauli win: Yeah, manager Vincent Kompany described it as “tricky”, their xG was just 0.80 and they won by a single goal, a gorgeous effort from Musiala. But then, Bayern conceded just three shots (none on target) for an xG of 0.08, with both Harry Kane and Musiala missing gilded chances. It wasn’t domination; it was control. That shouldn’t be a concern. If you’re going to find fault, do it with Leon Goretzka, who had little impact in his first start of the season, or Leroy Sané (also in his first start), who offered even less other than two improbable long range hit-and-hopes. Not sure how often we’ll see those two again in the starting lineup.
Koopmeiners pulls his weight as Juve win derby: Tim Weah and Kenan Yildiz will get the headlines (especially the latter with his ode to Ale Del Piero’s 50th birthday celebration), but it’s hard to overstate the impact Teun Koopmeiners had on this game. The Dutchman was their big summer signing (from Atalanta) and while there’s more to come, he gives Juve calm, quality and physicality. The inconsistency that has marked them all season long? There’s less of it when he’s on the pitch. Juventus took the lead, battered Torino in the first half (limiting them to 0.02 xG) and then managed the lead after the break, while adding the second goal: just like grown-up teams are supposed to do.
2:15
Nicol: Arne Slot’s tactical changes have Liverpool dreaming of a title
Steve Nicol says Liverpool’s return to an attacking style of play have eased his doubts surrounding Arne Slot’s vision for the team.
Liverpool aren’t perfect, but they’re tough and ruthless with room to grow: Saturday’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa was far from routine, but a bit like the resounding Bayer Leverkusen victory in midweek (with the visitors’ line of three defensive midfielders), it proved Arne Slot could overcome a savvy manager tailoring his set-up to stop the Reds… and failing. Villa actually had only a couple shots less than Liverpool and according to OPTA, they created more “big chances.” Villa boss Unai Emery would not have been displeased at how things were panning out on the pitch and yet, Liverpool hung in there, turning two Villa attacking corners into devastating counterattacks, converted by Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah, and that was that. Somehow, they never really looked flustered. It feels like they can get even better, too. Alexis Mac Allister is not yet on last season’s level and the chemistry in the attacking third can improve too. On the flip side, Ryan Gravenberch has played every minute of every league and Champions League game this season. He’s done it very well and in an entirely new role. Can he sustain this level? If he goes down, can Slot find a solution? Judging by how resourceful their new manager has been, you wouldn’t bet against it.
Emre Can‘s bad decision changed the game, but Dortmund’s horror show not just down to him: Sure, you can’t have your veteran captain stand-in centerback getting sent off 27 minutes into the game. That’s obvious. But, with Niklas Süle and Waldemar Anton unavailable, Nuri Sahin compounded matters by dropping Felix Nmecha — who had never played there — into the back four, rather than trusting one of the young defenders he had on the bench. Nmecha was responsible for two of Mainz‘s goals in the 3-1 defeat, but more than that, he was put under pressure by the total futility of the front men, who managed just one shot from open play despite having the bulk of the possession. Whatever optimism was generated by their win over Leipzig is dissipating quickly.
Xabi Alonso isn’t a one-season wonder, but how he bounces back will say a lot about him: This weekend’s draw against Bochum and newly installed coach Dieter Hecking makes it one win in eight league and Champions League games for Xabi Alonso and Bayer Leverkusen. Coming on the heels of the 4-0 spanking at Anfield, this performance was arguably worse. Bochum had one point and nine eight defeats going into this game. Their equalizer came later, but it was not undeserved, as evidenced by the xG (0.51 to 0.61) and the fact that they outshot the defending champions. A furious Lukas Hradecky said it “felt like a defeat,” while Xabi Alonso said he felt “a sense of deja vu.” Last year, everything went their way. This season is a sterner test, because coaches will have periods like this, when little works. He can embrace this situation because you often learn more in adversity than in periods where you get all the breaks. The many clubs who are tracking him will learn more about him, too.
Fonseca’s game of whack-a-mole continues as Milan held as Cagliari: It was set up nicely. Ride the momentum of the Real Madrid win into victory away to Cagliari, who were coming off three straight defeats. Give the 16-year-old phenom Francesco Camarda his first start in place of the unavailable Álvaro Morata and, now that he was off the naughty step, unleash Rafael Leão. The latter two came to fruition (Leao scored twice and was, at times, unplayable: his return to the fold is a major coup… if it lasts). The first did not, as Milan paid a hefty price for poor defending and individual mistakes (like Youssouf Fofana‘s back pass). And now, just as he gets to grip with the attack (3.20 xG on the road is a lot), he has another riddle to solve: tightening up a back line that suddenly looks leaky.
1:01
Michallik: Van Nistelrooy gave Man United a ‘green light’ to attack again
Janusz Michallik looks back on a 3-0 win for Manchester United over Leicester City to close out Ruud van Nistelrooy’s time as interim manager.
Ruud van Nistelrooy says goodbye with a win and Alejandro Garnacho is grumpy: Two different emotions were on show at Old Trafford this weekend. First, interim manager Van Nistelrooy leaves with humility and with his resume somewhat burnished. His stint felt Hippocratic in nature: “Above all, do no harm,” and he didn’t: he tightened things up and let the fact that United have better players than most of their opponents make the difference. Let Ruben Amorim do the heavy lift of philosophy and tactics and being the Messiah. Garnacho came on as a substitute and scored a tremendous goal, but did not celebrate. According to Bruno Fernandes, he was annoyed at the criticism he received from some of the Old Trafford crowd. It’s weird to see, but to me it’s not a big deal. He’s not paid to celebrate; he’s paid to perform and if acting like this helps him channel his emotions, go ahead. It’s not disrespectful to the fans though in the long run, the “chip-on-your-shoulder” schtick gets a little old.
Not much in the way of clear-eyed thinking at Roma as Juric gets the boot too: A 3-2 defeat at home to Bologna cost Ivan Juric his job this weekend after just 53 days (and 12 games) in charge. The writing was on the wall, though with this ownership, you wonder if a resounding win would have changed the Friedkins’ minds. The list of potential successors runs the gamut from Roberto Mancini (fresh off his sacking by Saudi Arabia, though his Lazio past would make it feel weird) to Claudio Ranieri (Roma-born and bred, but the guy is 73 years old) to solutions abroad like Edin Terzic and Frank Lampard. Roma said the search has been underway for the past few days, though you wonder who’s doing the searching given the club have no chief executive since Lina Souloukou qui in September and a director of football, Florent Ghisolfi, who speaks no Italian and nobody seems to like (or listen to). What should infuriate fans most though — other than the constant hiring and firing — is the lack of direction. In 2024 alone, the club has gone from Jose Mourinho to Daniele De Rossi to Ivan Juric: three totally different profiles who have totally different approaches to the game of football. And now, some other poor soul will come in, presumably going in another direction entirely.
STILL TO COME: Quick hits on Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona…
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