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Liz Loza, ESPN
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Once upon a time, there existed a website that allowed visitors free access to online classified ads. Users could peruse job listings, sell futons and stay abreast of local news. It was a largely text-based platform, the ethos of which resembled the community bulletin board at a neighborhood coffee shop. It was called Craigslist … and it was the information lifeblood of the aughts.
Almost every millennial and Gen-Xer has a Craigslist story, whether it involved researching a short-term lease, getting scammed out of concert tickets or attempting to recover a lost set of keys. A lot of us didn’t even use the forums for personal gain. We just wanted to see what was new and different on both the information superhighway and our surrounding streets. A sub-group called “Missed Connections” became particularly popular, especially among the young and unattached.
“Missed Connections” was a forum wherein people could post about an ephemeral encounter, attempting to locate a passerby that he or she did not have the momentary gumption with whom to engage. Basically, it was a place for hopeless romantics to shoot their shots after having chickened out the first time. I, personally, never submitted a query, though I did spend a few hours curiously searching to see if the law student whose girlfriend dumped him while I was waiting on their table had realized that his charming server was available to help ease his heartache and could also nail future wine pairings. Alas, I never discovered a “witty waitress who recommended the chicken parm at my nearby corporate red booth Italian restaurant” missed connection in any of my explorations.
The chances of a missed connection becoming found were decidedly slim, but that didn’t prevent folks from sending out anonymous bat signals from behind the blue light of their digital devices. The desire to reach out into the void with the aim of making contact is, truthfully, nothing new. In fact, the earliest publication of “missed connection” dates to the 1700’s. People like being linked up. And they uniquely enjoy pondering the “what ifs” when those opportunities to unite aren’t realized.
This was all I could think about while Jared Goff was slinging INTs on Sunday night. C.J. Stroud did his part, too. Together, the two QBs accounted for seven turnovers, not exactly the cleanest effort by the pair. Despite the errors, neither signal-caller stopped launching. Neither can we.
Part of the fun of fantasy is dissecting all of the close calls, examining which players exploded while languishing on fantasy benches, and weighing which matchups will lead to the most — you guessed it — connections. Sometimes we’re CeeDee Lamb, squinting into the sun. Other times, we’re brazenly booming with MVS-like flair and surprise. Not much of it is easy. All of it requires us to calculate, consider and (hopefully) capitalize. Don’t stop now. Anything can happen … and probably will.
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers: On his third team in four years, Wilson has also committed to staying in the game. While glimpses of his vintage self flashed in Denver, the vision failed to come into full focus. Three games into his Steelers tenure, however, Russ is starting to cook. Wilson’s passing stats have remained better than league average since the start of last season, as he’s registered a 65% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt and an off-target rate of just 13%. He’s additionally shined as a scorer, averaging 1.8 passing TDs per game (QB7) and 3.6 TDs per INT (QB4) during that span.
As it turns out, the “moon ball” also remains full. Wilson has recorded seven completions of 20 or more air yards over his three games in Pittsburgh (Jordan Love is the only other player averaging multiple deep completions per game). His 50% completion rate on such deep passes (the league average is 37%) is tied for third among quarterbacks, behind only Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. In fact, his 22% Completion Percentage Over Expected (which is a Next Gen Stat based on the difficulty of the throw and subsequent catch) on deep passes is the highest in the league.
That bodes well as he faces the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore’s defense has allowed the most fantasy points on deep passes (as well as the sixth-most passing scores and the second-most passing yards) thus far in 2024. Consider Wilson a top-10 play at the position in Week 11.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: Dobbins has emerged as one of this year’s feel-good stories. The former Raven is currently fantasy’s RB15, averaging better than 15 fantasy points per contest. While his tote total didn’t dip with Gus Edwards rejoining the backfield in Week 10, Dobbins’ goal line opportunities have yet to flourish in L.A.
The 25-year-old has registered three goal line carries so far this season. That’s on par with the rest of the team (and only two more than Hassan Haskins). Still, it’s well below league average, as the Chargers’ six carries inside the 5-yard line is tied for the third fewest, ahead of only the Cowboys and Titans. Interestingly, the Bolts have opted to pass when in close, recording a pass rate of 50% (league average is 43%) when five yards out from the end zone.
That’s not at all what we had expected heading into the fall. Yet, it’s been working in Dobbins’ favor, as he’s logged 24 grabs over nine games (he posted a meager 27 catches in 24 games while in Baltimore). His pass-catching skills figure to be in high demand versus a Bengals squad that’s averaged 31 points in the past three outings. It’s unlikely he’ll fall into the end zone, though. Cincinnati has allowed nine rushing scores to opposing RBs in nine games. Dobbins commands solid RB2 PPR fantasy appeal in what’s projected to be a close contest (Chargers -1.5).
Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos: We discussed Javonte Williams‘ waning fantasy stock in last week’s edition of this column, noting Estime’s addition to the backfield rotation. Sean Payton had been declaring the need to get the rookie more involved for weeks, though it was painfully slow to happen. But if the results of Week 10 are any indication, Denver has itself a new thumper.
Estime is a hard-to-take-down back with excellent contact balance and a knack for making defenders miss. He was granted a team-high 14 carries and 25 snaps in the meeting against the Chiefs, arguably the best run defense in the league. That’s a heck of an endorsement, particularly when Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for just three rush attempts. The Notre Dame product registered an underwhelming 3.8 yards per carry, but his 53 rushing yards marked the second-most productive effort (behind Jordan Mason‘s 58 rushing yards, also on 14 carries) of any running back facing Kansas City’s defense this season.
The test certainly softens versus the Falcons in Week 11. Atlanta’s run defense ranks 20th in rushing yards per game (144.0). And the Broncos are favored by two, suggesting a positive game script for the rookie RB. While it’s difficult to trust Payton week to week, Estime offers flex appeal in a plus matchup and deserves, at the very least, a spot on benches down the stretch.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys: D has stood for disaster in Dallas for the bulk of the fall. Now it appears as though the sun is additionally setting on Lamb’s automatic top-5 fantasy status. Dak Prescott‘s absence loomed large last Sunday, as Cooper Rush completed 13 of 23 pass attempts for 45 measly yards. The 30-year-old’s 1.96 yards per attempt is now tied for the fourth-lowest YPA by any player since 1990, and is the third-worst mark by a Cowboys QB with at least 20 attempts in franchise history.
That context only makes Lamb’s 6-21-0 stat line all the more cringey. Add in the fact the star wideout has managed just one triple-digit receiving effort this season and the whole situation is giving “yikes.” On the plus side, Lamb has cleared 10 targets in four straight efforts, and volume remains king in the virtual game. His healthy target share figures to stay steady as Dallas is a 7.5-point road dog versus the Texans. Whether Rush (or Trey Lance, who struggled in relief of Rush in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s contest) can deliver a catchable ball remains to be seen, especially facing a Houston defense that picked off Goff five times in Week 10 and could get star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. back in Week 11. Downgrade Lamb to a low-end WR1 while flexing for upside in the hopes of balancing out another potential bust performance.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers inspired a plethora of headlines last weekend. Christian McCaffrey‘s return and Brock Purdy‘s inspired play were chief among them. Flying under the radar — and pertinent to fantasy purposes — was Jennings’ up-leveling. The 27-year-old once again crushed while standing in for a starter, converting seven of a team-high 11 looks for (another team-high) 93 receiving yards.
Given Deebo Samuel Sr.’s unique skill set, the “wide back” role on the offense remains clearly defined. Therefore, Brandon Aiyuk‘s absence has provided Jennings with the opportunity to thrive as a traditional No. 1 WR. While the former seventh-round selection may not be in possession of Aiyuk’s first-round draft pedigree or brand name, he has proven he can ball. The former Vol has remained efficient when called into action, averaging 2.89 yards per route run (WR5) and 10.6 yards per target (WR13).
He offers managers flex appeal in a matchup versus the Seahawks. Seattle’s secondary has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and just gave up over 60.3 fantasy points to the Rams receivers in Week 9.
John Metchie III, WR, Houston Texans: Drumbeats don’t sound only during the summer. Metchie’s rise has, in fact, been increasing in syncopation since Week 8. In that effort, the Alabama product drew a curious four looks on just eight routes. While C.J. Stroud failed to target him during the squad’s following outing, Metchie ran a career-high 29 routes (tied for second on the team) against the Jets. Seemingly finding a rhythm, the 27-year-old next converted five of six looks for a team-high 74 yards this past Sunday evening. After battling leukemia in what should have been his rookie campaign, Metchie is finally climbing the rungs two years later.
The return of Nico Collins figures to complicate Metchie’s immediate emergence. And Tank Dell has drawn nine looks in back-to-back efforts. Yet, Dell’s catches have largely been of the short variety; his longest catch in Week 10 extended to 13 yards. That means Metchie — who appears to have moved past Xavier Hutchinson on the team’s depth chart — could work as the Texans’ No. 3 wideout. He’s not fantasy-relevant heading into Week 11, but makes for an interesting stash if Dell were to struggle or Collins suffered a setback. So, keep your ear to the ground.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings: Hockenson’s usage spiked in his second game back since suffering an ACL tear in late December 2023. The former fantasy darling was immediately leaned upon by Sam Darnold, tying Justin Jefferson with a team-high nine looks, while posting a 8-72-0 stat line in Week 10. Hockenson was on the field for only 46% of the team’s offensive snaps, however he ran 28 routes on those 38 snaps, indicating Kevin O’Connell‘s clear intention to utilize the tight end’s talents as a pass-catcher.
After closing out last weekend as fantasy’s TE5, the 27-year-old is poised to produce down the stretch. A plus matchup at Nashville figures to expedite the process. Tight ends have been targeted at a delicious rate (6.66 per game) when facing the Titans over the past three weeks. Hockenson projects to stay connected and likely deliver top-5 positional fantasy numbers in Week 11.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.
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