NHL betting second half preview: Best picks, odds for every team

Sean Allen
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Sean Allen

Special to ESPN.com
Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash

Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010

After a thrilling 4 Nations Face-Off, the NHL is set to resume regular season action on Saturday. Every team has fewer than 30 games remaining as they chase a playoff spot, and as players look to reach individual milestones, such as Alex Ovechkin‘s chase for the all-time NHL goals scored record.

We entered the break with the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals sitting atop their conferences, while the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers were the favorites to win the Stanley Cup according to ESPN BET. Which of the other top contenders are strong bets to etch their name into hockey immortality. Sean Allen (Eastern Conference) and Victoria Matiash (Western Conference) look at all 32 teams, and recommend their best bet for each one.

Latest odds as of publication. For odds movement, go to ESPN BET.

Anaheim Ducks most regular season points (H2H) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-120): While the Sabres were supposed to challenge for a playoff spot this season, the still-developing Ducks are in better position to wrap up within striking distance. Five points clear of Buffalo, Anaheim is endeavouring to finish 2024-25 on a high, with an optimistic look to next year. The Sabres, meanwhile, appear more focused on who to move ahead of the Mar. 7 trade deadline. Sometimes it just makes sense to side with the happier story.

David Pastrnak to score 40-plus regular season goals (-140): To have such odds for a player who has averaged 45.3 goals per 82 games since the summer of 2016, well, it just doesn’t seem fair on the surface. However, at the rate he’s scored this season, he is technically on pace for only 39 goals. Don’t be fooled by his pace though, as things are much better than they seem. Since Jan. 1, Pastrnak has 15 goals in 18 games.

Tage Thompson regular season total goals under 40.5 (-150): Unlike Pastrnak, Thompson has only eclipsed 40 goals once in his career. His current scoring rate suggests he’s on track to break that mark, but with his history of streaky production and Buffalo’s inconsistencies, the under remains a strong play.

Calgary Flames to make the playoffs (+380): Perhaps a fun option for the Vancouver doubters out there. If the Canucks fail to hang on to a playoff spot, there’s a reasonable chance the Flames could swoop in as surprising participants. Especially if GM Craig Conroy tweaks his club in a positive manner before the trade deadline. Vancouver goalie Thatcher Demko is again out week-to-week, heaping extra pressure on 4 Nations Face-Off participant Kevin Lankinen.

Jackson Blake regular season top rookie goal scorer (75-1): These are admittedly some long odds, but there could be something here. Blake is six goals behind the current leader, Macklin Celebrini, but only recently came into his new role at the top of the Canes depth chart. Since the Mikko Rantanen trade, Blake has found himself playing with Rantanen and Sebastian Aho quite frequently on the top line and also with them on the power play. That’s about as good a situation to overcome those odds as it can get.

Connor Bedard most regular points (H2H) vs. Alex Ovechkin (-115): Six clear of Washington’s captain today, Bedard is averaging a point/game since Dec. 1. Once Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, a little load management could be in play, as the East-leading Capitals look to last beyond a round or two this postseason. Bedard’s current cushion should eventually make the difference in this particular tete-a-tete.

Connor Bedard’s power-play goal pads Blackhawks’ lead

Connor Bedard scores on the power play for the Blackhawks in the second period.

Martin Necas most regular season points (H2H) vs. Sidney Crosby (-270): Since joining the Avalanche, the former Hurricanes forward has nine points in eight games, playing on a top line with Nathan MacKinnon. Toss in Necas’s current six-point cushion, Crosby’s injury concerns, the Penguins’ nearly dashed playoff hopes, and there’s good reason these odds are so short.

Zach Werenski, Norris Trophy winner (+550): If Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes don’t finish super strong and if Werenski can help squeak the Blue Jackets into a wild-card spot, maybe he can come up the middle to get some Norris love. He’s currently second to Makar in goals and second to Hughes in assists, with more even-strength points than both of them. That makes him a legitimate dark-horse contender.

Dallas Stars Stanley Cup winner (9-1): While many are focused on conference leaders Winnipeg and Washington, plus last year’s finalists from Florida and Edmonton, one of the league’s most balanced teams is again skimming under the radar. Top defender Miro Heiskanen is expected back for the playoffs, as is veteran forward Tyler Seguin. The addition of Mikael Granlund further strengthens the Stars up front. For the number, there’s appeal in backing this Dallas club to go all the way.

Detroit Red Wings to make the playoffs, No (-280): The Red Wings coaching change has them on a new trajectory, but the remaining schedule is among the top five for difficulty on strength of schedule metrics. That’s a lot to overcome, especially when two of the teams they are jockeying with (Ottawa and Montreal) have the easiest remaining schedules in the league.

Leon Draisaitl regular season total goals over 56.5 (-115): With 40 already, the league’s top scorer just needs another 17. In 27 games? This only doesn’t happen if Draisaitl falls hurt. For what it’s worth, odds for the Oiler to reach 50-plus goals are set at -1000. Might as well jump on the much healthier number for the extra seven.

Leon Draisaitl scores league-leading 40th goal from his knees

Leon Draisaitl brings the Oilers even with his 40th goal of the season from his knees.

Sam Reinhart to score 50-plus regular season goals (+550): Reinhart will need to boost his scoring rate just a tad to complete the back-to-back 50-goal campaign achievement. He’s on pace for 44 at the moment. Encouragingly, he finished last season with 16 goals in his final 22 games. This time, he needs 19 goals in 25 games — doable if he stays hot.

Los Angeles Kings Pacific Division winner (+550): Sure, they’re seven points behind both Vegas and Edmonton, but three games in hand on the former and two on the latter could prove mighty useful in narrowing that gap. Everyone’s (relatively) healthy, as Drew Doughty seems back up to speed and blueliner Mikey Anderson should return after the break. The Kings play 19 of their remaining 29 games at home, where they’ve been nearly unbeatable, suffering only three regulation losses.

Minnesota Wild regular season total points over 100.5 (-115): This points total likely goes right down to the wire in the final week, when the Wild face the Sharks, Flames, Canucks, and Ducks. Theoretically, there are much more difficult ways to conclude a regular season. The Wild need to win 14 of their remaining 26, while losing at least three in overtime, to bust through the 100-point mark. Their formidable defensive corps is finally healthy and star Kirill Kaprizov is due back in early March.

Montreal Canadiens to make the playoffs, Yes (+13-1): Using a variation on the usual strength of schedule analysis, which uses home/road splits and goals for and against for each team’s remaining opponents, the Canadiens have the second-easiest remaining schedule. They are still a longshot for the postseason, but at least the road to get there is paved with Sharks, Sabres and Blackhawks.

Nashville Predators regular season total points under 76.5 (-120): It’s been beyond bleak in Nashville this season, and now we’re asking this confoundingly weak sum of otherwise valuable parts to somehow scrape out 32 points in their final 28 games? They have six road wins so far. Even a “fresh coach bump,” should the Preds decide to move on from Andrew Brunette, likely wouldn’t suffice in securing an adequate number of victories.

Jack Hughes regular season total points over 92.5 (-115): Unless you have a reason to think that Hughes will slow down, he’s on pace to eclipse this mark across his 25 remaining games. There’s a similar offer on Jesper Bratt at 91.5 (-115) that is equally as tempting.

New York Islanders regular season total points under 86.5 (-115): It’s been fun watching Ilya Sorokin put on an absolute clinic of late, but the goals-based strength of schedule metric suggests no one has a more difficult path left in the NHL than the one the Isles must walk to the end of the season.

Artemi Panarin regular season total goals under 34.5 (-130): Set aside paces and rates, Panarin has scored more than 32 goals only once in his career — when he tallied 49 last season. He seems to have settled back down this campaign and is currently on pace for 35 goals, but given the roller-coaster season the Rangers have been having, let’s take the under.

Artemi Panarin starts the scoring for the Rangers

Ottawa Senators to make the playoffs, Yes (-300): The softest remaining NHL schedule on a goals-based strength of schedule belongs to the Senators. They have the advantage of already being in playoff position, but they also have the best path to the finish line.

Matvei Michkov, Calder Trophy winner (60-1): These are long odds, but, of all the NHL’s end-season trophies, there is a lot of wiggle room left here. The presumed favorites — Dustin Wolf, Lane Hutson, and Macklin Celebrini — haven’t separated themselves from the pack. A strong finish from Michkov could bring recency bias into play and push him into the conversation.

Sidney Crosby regular season total points under 85.5 (-120): He’s on pace for 84 points. Throw in the fact the Penguins are still headed for missing the playoffs and being sellers at the deadline, and it’s hard to picture a strong finish, even for Sid.

Macklin Celebrini regular season rookie points leader (-155): With a significant stretch of season remaining, it makes sense to side with the points/game leader (0.89) over the young defender in Montreal. Despite lacing them up for 11 fewer contests, Celebrini sits just one point behind Lane Hutson in rookie scoring. After losing October to injury, the young Sharks star has been the model of scoring consistency since mid-November.

Macklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks

Seattle Kraken season total points under 76.5 (-115): Saddled with one of the more challenging schedules to wrap 2024-25, the Kraken have just one regulation win — against San Jose — through seven games leading into the break. Following a solid January, goalie Joey Daccord has been largely mediocre of late against tougher competition. Securing 25 points in 25 games feels like an ask from a .456% team that’s facing a steep uphill climb.

St. Louis Blues regular season points total over 82.5 (-115): Underperforming to date, the Blues should be better than a .500 hockey team. Not miles better, mind you, but good enough to at least lightly challenge for a Wild Card spot in the West. It isn’t over yet. A solid showing by defender Colton Parayko and, more importantly, goalie Jordan Binnington, at the 4 Nations Face-Off could provide just enough of an inspirational kick in the pants to make matters more interesting down the stretch. They only need 28 points in their remaining 26 games to seal 83 on the season. A post-tourney hot streak by Binnington would help greatly in that regard.

Nikita Kucherov, Art Ross Trophy winner (+210): Based on their current paces and remaining games, Nathan MacKinnon is projected to finish with 125.1 points, Leon Draisaitl with 123.7, and Kucherov with 124.6. It’s shaping up to be a photo finish and, while Kucherov isn’t the odds-on favorite, his payout offers the most value among the top contenders.

Stanley Cup winner 2024/25 (12-1): When comparing the odds, the Leafs standout as one of the value plays. Their payout is twice that of the current favorite, the Edmonton Oilers (+600), but are the Oilers twice as likely to win the cup? Not with the way the Leafs have been playing defense under coach Craig Berube this season. They might not be my favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but relative to odds and payouts, I like where the Leafs stand.

Utah Hockey Club regular season points total over 85.5 (-125): Out since mid-October, prominent defenseman Sean Durzi is ready to go. Just before the break, blossoming forward Dylan Guenther erupted for four goals and three assists in four contests. Between Karel Vejmelka and Connor Ingram, Utah’s goaltending has been solid. Logan Cooley’s return shouldn’t be far off, but now Utah just needs to figure out how to win more often at home. Regardless, 29 points in 26 games is well within reach.

Quinn Hughes Norris Trophy winner (+150): Although he wasn’t cleared to participate in the 4 Nations Face-Off final, he has been practicing with the Canucks this week, which bodes well for a healthy return to action when the Canucks visit the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vancouver’s standout MVP only trails Cale Makar by four points (59), despite playing 10 fewer games. Another potential injury presents as the greatest (only?) impediment to Hughes securing his second Norris in as many seasons.

Jack Eichel Regular Season total points over 100.5 (Even): The greatest argument against Eichel completing this feat is he never has before. Not convincing enough. While he previously banged out enough points to maintain the necessary pace, the former Sabre’s earlier campaigns for 100-plus points were derailed by injuries. Well, he appears fully fit right now as he was a crucial piece for Team USA is the 4 Nations Face-Off. Averaging 1.25 points/game to date in the NHL, collecting another 32 in 26 contests is achievable.

Jack Eichel lights the lamp

Alex Ovechkin, most regular season goals (H2H) vs. Jake Guentzel (-140): These head-to-head bets can be fun, but this one feels off. Ovechkin has 26 goals in 39 games, while Guentzel has 27 in 54. Betting against Ovechkin here is basically betting on him getting hurt again, because if he stays healthy, he should run away with this one.

Mark Scheifele regular season total goals over 43.5 (-130): He needs 13 more in 26 games. Not that daunting an ask, considering the Jets’ top center already has 31 on the year. Don’t dismiss how extra-inspired (or irritated) the well-rested Scheifele will feel after failing to make Team Canada’s roster at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

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NHL betting second half preview: Best picks, odds for every team

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