In February 2019, just nine months into the United States’ sports betting experiment, online sportsbooks accepted legal wagers on the Super Bowl for the first time; a pivotal moment for American sports. Just a few weeks later, a much smaller (but just as passionate) contingent of bettors placed legal wagers on their event of choice.
Lacking the physicality of football but possessing no less pageantry, the 91st Academy Awards saw American sportsbooks offer and accept wagers on Hollywood’s biggest night for the very first time. Despite the longstanding legality of sports betting in the state, Nevada never allowed betting on the Oscars, but New Jersey, the very first state to go online following the fall of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), chose to immediately allow Oscars betting and is one of seven U.S. states to permit it to this day.
The ability to bet on the awards was a long time coming for DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello, who had been creating hypothetical Academy Awards odds since the early ’90s. The bookmaking veteran told ESPN that he would put conceptual odds up on the board at his Las Vegas sportsbook as a fun conversation piece on Oscars Sunday, then close the book early for an Oscars party for patrons and staff — but he never got to accept wagers until February 2019 at DraftKings.
“Prior to 2019, before we started taking them legally, I knew some guys, who have passed away since then, and they were producers, they were promoters, guys that were on the inside,” Avello said. “I would talk to them about some of the movies that were coming out and they would tell me what some of the buzz was out there. So I had a good inside track to what was going to be hot, what wasn’t going to be hot.”
That first Academy Awards betting experience contained as much drama as the films nominated. Alfonso Cuarón was a prohibitive favorite (-1350) to win Best Director for his work on “Roma,” but hours before the show, Yorgos Lanthimos — a +3500 underdog to win the award for directing “The Favourite” — saw a deluge of action, forcing bookmakers to bring him down to +500 at closing. Cuarón ultimately took home the gold statue.
The episode is an excellent illustration of the Academy Awards process and, in turn, how bookmakers create odds surrounding a highly subjective field. There were rumors of college kids with Hollywood-connected parents leaking that Lanthimos would win the award, while Avello chalks it up to “good value” on the helmer of a film that had been very well regarded that season.
“This is based on the opinions of [almost] 10,000 Academy members … Are their opinions based on what they’ve seen, or is it more about what the experts are thinking?” Avello said. “It’s a tough handicap for making odds, and it’s a tough handicap for whoever’s wagering on it. It’s a guessing game, but it’s a fun guessing game.”
The closest sports equivalent to Oscars betting is individual awards betting: The bulk of making betting lines involves a hefty amount of subjectivity — as we saw with the NFL’s controversial Comeback Player of the Year race this season. But unlike sports awards, oddsmakers have fewer statistics and no on-field performances to anchor their handicapping for Oscar-nominated films. Because of the immense subjectivity of filmmaking, and the large volume of voters, there’s no definitive way to say which movie, actor or behind-the-scenes work was the “best.”
“Our traders look at all available information, from box office viewing figures and reviews, to other industry awards results, voting polls, and previous winners,” ESPN BET vice president of sportsbook operations Will Stephenson said via email. “We’re attempting to predict individual human decision-making from the voters as much as we are evaluating stats and performance.”
One of the main indicators bookmakers rely on today is performance at the season’s prior award shows. Those are historically among the most reliable markers of what will win at the Oscars due in part to the crossover between members of the Academy and voters for other major awards shows.
In the case of 2019’s Best Director race, Cuarón had won the top director prizes at the BAFTA, Directors Guild and Golden Globe awards prior to the Oscars, which was a big factor in his insurmountable odds.
For 2025, there are two heavy favorites to win in the major categories, according to ESPN BET odds: Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor in “A Real Pain” (-5000) and Zoe Saldaña for Best Supporting Actress in “Emilia Pérez” (-2500). Culkin and Saldaña both won the corresponding prizes at the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards.
Oscars predictions based on a sampling of anonymous ballots have become a mainstay of trade publications such as IndieWire and Variety, as well as GoldDerby, which specializes in entertainment awards shows. Avello says he uses these outlets but also makes a point to watch the movies themselves to understand voters’ rationales for picking them.
“You kind of have to get in their heads,” he said. “You don’t speak to them, but you got to have a feel for it a little bit to make the odds.”
Then there’s campaigning, the less talked about but extremely prevalent part of the process that speaks to some of the “hot and not” aspects of the awards. Following a film’s release, producers, stars and directors spend months glad-handing with Academy voters at events, while desperately trying to avoid negative press.
The prime example of 2025 on both ends of the spectrum is “Emilia Pérez.” After winning the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival in May, the film went on to win the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and received the most nominations (13) for the 97th Academy Awards. This was despite mixed reviews from critics and audiences all along the way.
However, the film’s Best Picture hopes quickly came crashing down when old, controversial social media posts from star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced. The production received further condemnation for its handling of the scandal, as well as comments from director Jacques Audiard surrounding Mexican cartels and the Spanish language.
Heading into Oscars weekend, the film has +8000 odds to win Best Picture, per ESPN BET, currently tied with “Wicked” for the fifth-longest odds for the top prize.
Aside from the drama surrounding “Emilia Pérez,” the 2025 Best Picture race has seen numerous twists and turns throughout awards season.
“The Brutalist” opened as the favorite for the honor at -110, according to ESPN BET, and maintained that status through the Golden Globes and for several weeks after. At the Directors Guild and Producers Guild award shows on Feb. 8, “Anora” took home the top prizes and commandeered betting favorite status for the Oscars’ highest honor, surpassing “The Brutalist”.
ESPN BET says it took a rush of money on “Anora,” which opened at +500, following those wins and sits at -225 heading into Oscars weekend; the book reports a leading 48% of total handle and 27% of total bets for the film to win Best Picture. “In general with award markets, or a market like Gatorade color for the Super Bowl, we may react faster to money wagered than we would on a spread or game total, where we have more empirical data to set the opening numbers,” Stephenson said.
Subsequently, “The Brutalist” began tumbling down the odds board, falling from its shortest odds of -170 all the way to +800 heading into the weekend. In fact, it got leapfrogged by “Conclave” (+275), which snagged the Best Ensemble top prize at the SAG Awards on Feb. 23.
“He’s lost steam, the movie’s lost steam. That’s what happens during Oscars season,” Avello said of director Brady Corbet and “The Brutalist,” noting that films’ odds often shorten or lengthen wildly in the home stretch. “There’s just a switch that happens in the last three or four weeks.”
The intrinsic connection between Best Picture and Best Director — 69 out of 96 of Best Director winners (71.9%) helmed that year’s Best Picture — means that “Anora” director Sean Baker (-225) has taken control of the race from Corbet (+170).
“Conclave” director Edward Berger was not nominated for Best Director, so if his film were to win Best Picture, it would be just the seventh time in Academy Awards history that a film won the award without also having a Best Director nominee, the last instance being “CODA” in 2022. “CODA” coasted to victory off a Best Adapted Screenplay win, for which “Conclave” is the favorite at Sunday’s ceremony.
“Anora” and “The Brutalist” are also fighting with big names in the lead acting categories.
Adrien Brody was long seen as the favorite in the Best Actor category for “The Brutalist” and still sports -275 odds with 76% of the money at ESPN BET. However, the race heated up at the SAG Awards when Timothée Chalamet became the youngest Best Actor winner ever for his work in “A Complete Unknown.” He’s at +200 with a leading 49% of the tickets at ESPN BET heading into the weekend.
“The money so far on this has come in on Chalamet, even before [the SAG Awards],” Avello said. “The bettors out there really thought that Chalamet had a legitimate chance here the whole time.”
For Best Actress, Mikey Madison of “Anora” was the favorite in the category before awards season, until Demi Moore won the corresponding Golden Globe (in the comedy category), Critics Choice and SAG awards for her work in “The Substance.”
After opening at +750, Moore soared to +175 after the Globes, then took over odds-on status after the SAGs at -225, per ESPN BET odds. Madison sits at +200 heading into the weekend, but has the most bets (34%) and handle (43%) in the category.
While those who do bet on the Academy Awards are passionate about it, their numbers are few: Avello says it’s not for the “masses” and probably racks up handle in the range of an average NASCAR event. As such, sportsbooks tend to limit bettors to wagers around $1,000 for the Oscars, not intending for this to be a money-making enterprise for either side.
Ahead of the 2025 Awards, sportsbooks in seven U.S. states are permitted to offer odds for the show: Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey. Ontario, Canada, and Puerto Rico also allow betting on the Oscars. In its laws, New Jersey defines a “sports event” that can be bet on as “any live competition or talent contest, including awards competitions.”
Officials at the Indiana Gaming Commission told ESPN that it approved the Academy Awards as an “other” type of event and clarifies in its wagering directive that awards voting must be “collected and tallied by… an independent third party required to maintain the confidentiality of the outcome of the award until it is announced.” The Academy employs accounting firm PwC to tabulate the votes and compile results confidentially.
Meanwhile, the Colorado Division of Gaming does not allow wagers that are “not skill-based,” a category into which it lumps the Academy Awards. The Illinois Sports Wagering Act allows wagering for “a professional sport or athletic event, a collegiate sport or athletic event, a motor race event or any other event or competition of relative skill.” The state’s gaming board does not interpret the Oscars falling into that definition, which it reaffirmed in an April 2021 decision denying a request to offer Oscars betting.
Still, bookmakers are hopeful more jurisdictions will jump on board if the practice becomes more popular: Avello notes that he sees more women bettors sign up ahead of the Academy Awards, and Oscar pools, such as the Oscars Pick ‘Em contest on ESPN, remain popular among groups of film fanatics.
“We’re trying to do more entertainment odds,” Avello said. “We did the Grammys, we’ve done the Emmys, so it’s not just [the Oscars]. For that audience of ours that really enjoys this, we’re trying to put up more entertainment content.”
As with traditional sports betting, cinephiles who put money down will be seeking the same thrill a touchdown brings when the envelopes start opening on Sunday night and beyond.
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