The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide head to Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in a non-conference matchup. The SEC-Big Ten showdown is part of Week 3 college football slate that features multiple Top 25 road tests.
The Crimson Tide (2-0) enter Saturday fresh off a 42-16 win over South Florida. Alabama is 19-1 over their past 20 September games and are currently 16-point road favorites at ESPN BET. Meanwhile, the Badgers (2-0) defeated South Dakota 27-13 in Week 2 and have won five of their past seven September games.
The total was 51.5 earlier in the week and is now set at 50.5 points, but with a game showcasing two stout defenses, will the each school’s offense get an opportunity to break out?
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Spread: Alabama (-16)
Moneyline: Alabama (-800), Wisconsin (+550)
Over/Under: 50.5
First-half spread: Alabama -8.5, Wisconsin +8.5
First-half moneyline: Alabama (-450), Wisconsin (+300)
Pamela Maldonado’s pick of the game: Under 50.5
After two weeks, both Alabama and Wisconsin have demonstrated exceptional defense on third down, allowing only ten third-down conversions on 56 attempts combined. Alabama ranks second in the nation in third down conversions allowed, a defensive strength that significantly limits scoring opportunities for opponents.
Inefficient offenses also contribute to unders. Alabama, while ranking 22nd in rushing offense, has a Pro Football Focus (PFF) run blocking grade of 91st. This discrepancy suggests their rushing success stems from individual talent rather than solid offensive line performance, which may prove unsustainable against stronger defenses.
In their game against South Florida, Alabama’s first-half rushing performance was subpar, generating only 57 yards on 19 attempts (three yards per carry). The offensive line’s struggle to create running lanes could lead to more third-and-long situations against tougher defenses, potentially hindering drive sustainability and point production.
Wisconsin’s offense has shown inconsistency, with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke still adapting to the new system. While Van Dyke has avoided interceptions, his passing production has been limited, not exceeding 220 yards in a game and throwing just one touchdown. His average Depth of Target (7.6 yards) ranks 78th out of 99 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.
The Badgers’ offense lacks explosiveness, with Van Dyke completing only two passes beyond 20 yards and the running backs collectively managing just one designed run of 15-plus yards. This contributes to Wisconsin ranking 69th in points per game.
Given these offensive inefficiencies and the strong defensive units on both sides, the total going under 50.5 points is a good look.
Betting trends
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Kalen DeBoer is 1-5 in his past six games as a two-touchdown favorite (14+ points or more).
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Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their past five games against Big Ten opponents.
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Wisconsin is 4-1 in their past five games against ranked opponents.
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Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in their past five home games as a double-digit underdog.
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The under is 7-2 in Wisconsin home games since the start of last season
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info.
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