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Andre Snellings, ESPN
The distribution of talent throughout fantasy basketball drafts is rarely even across positions. This year is no exception, with the top of the draft dominated by point guards and big men. Outside of a handful of elite swingmen with early-round grades, most of the talent on the wing can be found in the second half of drafts.
This is key information, because it can help guide the decisions managers will and should make when building their squads. And that is why the tiers-based approach in this article is useful.
One way to utilize the info might be to put a premium on small forwards in the first few rounds, knowing those are limited commodities. In the first ESPN fantasy basketball mock draft of the year, there were only five players eligible at small forward taken in the first three rounds. Contrast that with 16 players eligible at point guard in that same range, and it’s clear that it is much easier to get an elite producer in your point guard slot than at small forward.
Another approach might be to take a closer look at the value of the players available in the back half of the draft. In Tiers 5 and 6, for example, the small forward position is stacked with 12 eligible players with good upside who almost universally start for their teams. The point guards in those tiers are solid, but several are either coming off the bench or needing to fit in on stacked rosters. When you reach that part of the draft, the value for multiple rounds could very well be at small forward, which could fit the potential holes on your team if you didn’t get one of the elites at the position in the first few rounds.
That leads to maybe the best way to look at it, by mixing and matching players from different tiers to see which combination you like the best. Would you rather have a team featuring Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler? Or Jayson Tatum, Trae Young and Jarrett Allen? Or maybe Joel Embiid, LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell?
There are many ways to build a successful team, but it requires finding strong producers from top to bottom. The following is my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based on my preseason projections. It’s worthwhile to see how I break things down, but ultimately you’ll benefit by taking time and breaking down the players into your tiers. You will be shocked how much this 20-minute exercise will set you apart from the other team managers in your draft.
Point guard
The top tiers of point guards run three deep. Two of them, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, were among the top three fantasy producers last season, as the only non-center-eligible players to score more than 4,000 fantasy points. The next two tiers have more PG-eligible players (13 altogether) than any other position, and are full of players with the ability to offer first-round production in good seasons when health allows. Tier 4 contains the past three elite point guard prospects, with a former Tier 1 guy in Damian Lillard and two Murrays in Dejounte and Jamal, who have top-shelf talent but have to fit in on stacked squads featuring other No. 1 options. Tiers 5 and 6 are a mix of young starters with upside, veteran producers who are tertiary options on their teams, and sixth men who can produce starter numbers. The most interesting prospects in the later rounds are the young players, including our first rookie point guard in Stephon Castle and last year’s highest-drafted rookie signal-caller in Scoot Henderson.
Shooting guard
There is only one shooting guard in Tier 1, 23-year-old Anthony Edwards, who could vault into the inner circle of the top tier this season if he can replicate the production of his past two playoffs. The second tier would have only two members, but is bolstered by the multi-position eligibility of Scottie Barnes. The same phenomenon happens in Tier 3, where the four players listed at shooting guard are matched by four other SG-eligible players who dramatically increase the likelihood of leaving the tier with an elite producer at the position. Tier 4 would be empty if not for the multi-position eligible Dejounte Murray, but Tiers 5 and 6 are stacked. Two young players in Tier 5, Anfernee Simons and Cam Thomas, both have explosive scoring ability and enter the season with large roles that could allow them to leap tiers. Tier 7 contains our first rookie in Reed Sheppard, and Tier 9 has one of my favorite sleeper candidates in 21-year-old Shaedon Sharpe.
Small forward
Tier 1 has only one name, Jayson Tatum, though Anthony Edwards is dual-eligible. Tier 2 contains the oldest player in the league in LeBron James and one of the youngest All-Stars in Scottie Barnes. Tier 3 has one of the most reliable players in DeMar DeRozan, as well as a player with Tier 2 upside but an unfortunate injury history in Kawhi Leonard. Tier 4 has Leonard’s former teammate, Paul George, who will be fitting in on a new superteam with the 76ers. Tiers 5 and 6 are jam-packed (13 players), including the multi-eligible guys, and contain a plethora of second or third options with leading-scorer upside. Two of my favorite sleepers reside in Tiers 6 and 7, Amen Thompson and Jaime Jaquez Jr., respectively.
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Power forward
The only name in Tier 1 is Giannis Antetokounmpo, though he and Domantas Sabonis are both eligible at power forward and center. The second and third tiers have five names, all impact guys, but the numbers more than double when you include the small forwards and centers with PF eligibility. Tier 4 is full of talented second options, but Tiers 5 and 6 are sparse with only three names before accounting for four other multi-eligible frontcourt players. The late-round tiers are all full, with many multi-eligible players further bolstering the population. Most of the late-round options are veteran glue guys, but younger players like Jabari Smith Jr. and Jonathan Kuminga still have impact upside.
Center
The center position dominates Tier 1, with five center-eligible players, including the past six consecutive NBA MVP winners plus one player in the limitless Victor Wembanyama. Tier 2 is sparse with only Anthony Davis, but Davis was fifth in the league in total fantasy points last season and would be Tier 1 with a better injury history. Tiers 3 and 4 are packed, with the former full of players with impact upside and the latter full of supporting players who bolster their roto value with a combination of blocked shots and 3-pointers. Tiers 5 and 6 have productive role players, though Kristaps Porzingis would be at least one tier higher with a better health history. Jalen Duren is a young veteran with impact upside in Tier 6, while Tier 8 has our first two rookies in Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan.
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